True Market Mean
True Market Mean is the realized price of Cointime Economics: instead of all coins it counts only the active supply, and instead of the full realized cap it uses investor cap (realized cap minus thermo cap, i.e. without the miner share). That makes it the cost basis of those who actually move the market. Price (grey) runs over it; to see the whole ladder, it also appears as a rung in the Cost-Basis Ladder. BRK-native, no self-reconstruction. Descriptive, not a signal.
- Formula:
- True Market Mean = Investor Cap ÷ Active Supply · Investor Cap = Realized Cap − Thermo Cap
- Originator:
- Cointime Economics (ARK Invest × Glassnode, 2023)
- Data source:
- BRK (Bitcoin Research Kit, brk_true_market_mean, point-in-time in btc_chart_metrics) + BTC-Tageskurs (btc_price_daily)
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library — try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else — buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy →Buy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule — week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy →More Bitcoin indicators
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Difference between market cap and realized cap, normalised by standard deviation. Values above 5 mark the top region (4 of 5 historical bull tops), below 0 every bottom.