Delta Price & Top Price
Average cap is the cumulative mean of market cap since the first market price. Delta cap = realized cap β average cap, divided by circulating supply gives the Delta Price β at the 2015 ($120 vs $158) and 2018 ($3.2k vs $3.1k) lows price sat on or below it, at the 2022 low it stayed ~25 % above. Top cap = 35 Γ average cap gives the Top Price: the constant fit the 2013 and 2017 tops (within Β±20 %), since then the ceiling runs away because the mean compounds forever. Balanced Price is deliberately absent β the source has no transferred price, and we do not estimate. Derived by us from three BRK series and persisted. Descriptive, not a signal.
- Formula:
- Average Cap = cummean(Market Cap) Β· Delta Price = (Realized Cap β Average Cap) Γ· Supply Β· Top Price = 35 Γ Average Cap Γ· Supply
- Originator:
- David Puell (delta cap, 2018) Β· Willy Woo (top cap, 2018)
- Data source:
- BRK (Bitcoin Research Kit, brk_market_cap / brk_realized_cap / brk_circulating_supply β brk_delta_price + brk_top_price, abgeleitet in der Ingestion, point-in-time in btc_chart_metrics) + BTC-Tageskurs
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library β try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else β buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy βBuy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule β week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy βMore Bitcoin indicators
111-day SMA vs. 350-day SMA Γ 2. Classic top signal by Philip Swift β historical crossovers nailed every BTC bull-run top to within days.
Current BTC price divided by the 200-day moving average. Below 1 historically bearish, above 2.4 marks the top 0.5% quantile.
Logarithmic regression on BTC price since 2010 with nine colour bands β from "Fire Sale" deep blue to "Maximum Bubble" red.