HODL Waves
HODL Waves colour Bitcoin supply by age of last on-chain movement — from <1 day to 10+ years. Before every bull run the long-term bands shrink (old coins get activated), in bear markets they grow back. Unchained Capital popularised the chart in 2018.
- Formula:
- Supply-Anteil pro Alters-Band, 13 Bänder
- Originator:
- Unchained Capital (2018)
- Data source:
- bgeometrics /hodlWavesSupplies
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library — try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else — buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy →Buy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule — week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy →More Bitcoin indicators
111-day SMA vs. 350-day SMA × 2. Classic top signal by Philip Swift — historical crossovers nailed every BTC bull-run top to within days.
Current BTC price divided by the 200-day moving average. Below 1 historically bearish, above 2.4 marks the top 0.5% quantile.
Logarithmic regression on BTC price since 2010 with nine colour bands — from "Fire Sale" deep blue to "Maximum Bubble" red.