Crypto Liquidity Composite
Popular "liquidity cycle" charts draw a smooth curve over price and never publish the formula. This composite defines its own, reproducible measure: three channels that gauge liquidity INSIDE the crypto system (not central-bank balance sheets), each as a 30-day change placed in its own expanding trailing percentile, averaged equal-weight. The state (expanding / neutral / contracting) is the tercile of the composite's own history — measured, not set. When a channel is missing (ETF flows before 2024) the composition is declared, never filled. No fair value, no cycle phase: Bitcoin is not cointegrated with central-bank liquidity, and for crypto-internal liquidity that is unmeasured — and not asserted here.
- Formula:
- composite = mean(percentile_i) over available components; percentile_i = expanding trailing percentile (≥365 obs) of the 30-day impulse; state = tercile of the composite's own trailing history (n ≥ 2 components)
- Originator:
- Backtesting Arena (own measure — not a rebuild of a third-party chart without a formula)
- Data source:
- Compute-on-read: btc_chart_metrics.stablecoin_supply_usd (DefiLlama, persistiert ab 2017-11-29) · brk_realized_cap + brk_market_cap (BRK) · etf_flows (SoSoValue/Farside, ab 2024-01-11) — /api/charts/liquidity-composite
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library — try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
Buy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule — week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy →The benchmark for everything else — buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy →More Bitcoin indicators
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