Valuation Models: Hindsight vs. Real Time
Valuation models are usually fitted on the full history and laid backwards over the chart — every historical hit rate is then drawn with later data. This page sets each static line against the point-in-time one and shows how far a price target moves when the same method is re-run every year.
- Formula:
- MAGR = median, CAGR = geometric mean of anniversary returns; log-log refit monthly on prior data
- Data source:
- BTC daily closes (derived)
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library — try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else — buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy →Buy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule — week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy →More Bitcoin indicators
111-day SMA vs. 350-day SMA × 2. Classic top signal by Philip Swift — historical crossovers nailed every BTC bull-run top to within days.
Current BTC price divided by the 200-day moving average. Below 1 historically bearish, above 2.4 marks the top 0.5% quantile.
Logarithmic regression on BTC price since 2010 with nine colour bands — from "Fire Sale" deep blue to "Maximum Bubble" red.