Bitcoin Historical Analogues
As of 2 Oct 2026 · 10 most similar setups (⌀ 83.71% match) · from 2777 candidates since 1 Dec 2018
When BTC looked like today, the next 90 days delivered a median of -4.57% (50% positive) — over 30 days -6.92% (40% positive).
A distribution of past outcomes — not a forecast.
Outcome distribution
The 10 most similar periods
| Date | Match | BTC price | +30d | +90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2023 | 93.35% | $30,200 | -10.7% | +0.7% |
| 22 May 2019 | 90.14% | $7,628 | +33.18% | +41.06% |
| 5 May 2026 | 88.13% | $80,348 | -22.63% | -21.37% |
| 19 Feb 2019 | 83.18% | $3,908 | +1.86% | +103.14% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | 82.66% | $95,605 | -26.97% | -21.75% |
| 5 Apr 2022 | 82.63% | $45,498 | -19.66% | -55.52% |
| 9 May 2020 | 80.62% | $9,539 | +2.54% | +21.54% |
| 14 Aug 2022 | 79.8% | $24,305 | -17% | -30.83% |
| 12 Jul 2023 | 78.98% | $30,380 | -3.14% | -9.84% |
| 29 Oct 2023 | 77.63% | $34,526 | +9.54% | +22% |
How this works
Each day carries a 9-dimensional fingerprint of Bitcoin cycle indicators. Similarity is a weighted distance to today. The nearest days ≥21 days apart (distinct episodes, each with a complete 90-day forward window → no look-ahead) form the set above. The fingerprint comes from the Bitcoin cycle position. Compare with the unconditional base-rate probability.
Related knowledge
For research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Historical outcomes describe the past; they do not predict the future.