Bitcoin Historical Analogues
As of 2 Jul 2026 · 10 most similar setups (⌀ 87.01% match) · from 579 candidates since 1 Dec 2018
When BTC looked like today, the next 90 days delivered a median of -9.13% (40% positive) — over 30 days +3.56% (60% positive).
A distribution of past outcomes — not a forecast.
Outcome distribution
The 10 most similar periods
| Date | Match | BTC price | +30d | +90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2018 | 95.67% | $4,161 | -8.74% | -8.2% |
| 26 Jun 2022 | 95.12% | $21,038 | +1.03% | -10.07% |
| 8 Apr 2026 | 94.36% | $71,070 | +12.23% | -15.33% |
| 9 Oct 2022 | 92.44% | $19,439 | -4.59% | -12.84% |
| 7 Jan 2023 | 91.41% | $16,944 | +34.34% | +64.7% |
| 5 Mar 2019 | 88.94% | $3,858 | +26.98% | +110.38% |
| 5 Jun 2019 | 78.57% | $7,777 | +41.08% | +36.5% |
| 13 Mar 2022 | 78.21% | $37,777 | +6.08% | -24.76% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | 77.99% | $91,100 | -23.94% | -21.99% |
| 21 Apr 2023 | 77.42% | $27,263 | -1.89% | +9.31% |
How this works
Each day carries a 9-dimensional fingerprint of Bitcoin cycle indicators. Similarity is a weighted distance to today. The nearest days ≥21 days apart (distinct episodes, each with a complete 90-day forward window → no look-ahead) form the set above. The fingerprint comes from the Bitcoin cycle position. Compare with the unconditional base-rate probability.
For research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Historical outcomes describe the past; they do not predict the future.