Bitcoin Historical Analogues
As of 16 Aug 2026 · 10 most similar setups (⌀ 86.2% match) · from 803 candidates since 1 Dec 2018
When BTC looked like today, the next 90 days delivered a median of +13.2% (50% positive) — over 30 days -0.36% (50% positive).
A distribution of past outcomes — not a forecast.
Outcome distribution
The 10 most similar periods
| Date | Match | BTC price | +30d | +90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2019 | 94.98% | $3,988 | -12.94% | +26.49% |
| 20 Jul 2022 | 94.42% | $23,223 | -10.29% | -16.78% |
| 30 Nov 2022 | 93.47% | $17,164 | -3.24% | +34.83% |
| 10 Mar 2023 | 92.16% | $20,151 | +40.56% | +31.5% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | 91.74% | $75,933 | +2.52% | -14.89% |
| 12 Apr 2019 | 90.42% | $5,048 | +38.02% | +124.7% |
| 21 Apr 2022 | 79.34% | $40,480 | -27.26% | -42.63% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | 77.21% | $88,428 | -24.23% | -15.61% |
| 11 Jun 2023 | 74.6% | $25,926 | +18.12% | -0.09% |
| 24 Apr 2020 | 73.62% | $7,505 | +16.19% | +27.96% |
How this works
Each day carries a 9-dimensional fingerprint of Bitcoin cycle indicators. Similarity is a weighted distance to today. The nearest days ≥21 days apart (distinct episodes, each with a complete 90-day forward window → no look-ahead) form the set above. The fingerprint comes from the Bitcoin cycle position. Compare with the unconditional base-rate probability.
Related knowledge
For research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Historical outcomes describe the past; they do not predict the future.