Bitcoin Today — Market State
As of 1 Jul 2026 · Composite of 8 knowledge objects · Explainable, not a trading signal
Defensive / bearish-leaningNet tilt -0.27Confidence 87%
A synthesized read of where Bitcoin stands today, aggregating 5 directional signals across cycle, structure, flows, historical analogues and long-run base rate. Context below.
Directional signals
Cycle
Recovery (34/100)
Structure
Downtrend
ETF flows (30d)
-7,256M$ (distribution)
90-day analogues
median -10.65%, 40% up
1-year base rate
median +56.08%, 68.23% up (unconditional)
Context
Macro coupling
equity 0.51 (1y), regime Sweet Spot
Volatility
options normal · VRP +8.51pp · IV-rank 22
Options
max-pain $59,000, spot -0.51%, PCR 1.03, 0d
Sources (8 knowledge objects · derived_from)
Each signal above is derived from a separately published, versioned knowledge object. Freshness per source:
- cycle — as of 1 Jul 2026
- flows — as of 29 Jun 2026
- options — as of 1 Jul 2026
- analogue — as of 1 Jul 2026
- base rate — as of 1 Jul 2026
- structure — as of 1 Jul 2026
- volatility — as of 1 Jul 2026
- correlation — as of 28 Jun 2026
This is a synthesized, explainable market state for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Historical and base-rate figures describe the past; they do not predict the future.
Dig into the data
Explore the Bitcoin cycle, on-chain charts and backtests behind each signal.
← Bitcoin chartsUpdated 1 Jul 2026