Bitcoin Today — Market State
As of 15 Aug 2026 · Composite of 9 knowledge objects · Explainable, not a trading signal
Mixed / neutralNet tilt +0.06Confidence 81%
A synthesized read of where Bitcoin stands today, aggregating 5 directional signals across cycle, structure, flows, historical analogues and long-run base rate. Context below.
Directional signals
→ open the full analysisCycle→
Expansion (56/100)
Structure→
Downtrend
ETF flows (30d)→
+989M$ (accumulation)
90-day analogues→
median +13.2%, 50% up
1-year base rate→
median +52.56%, 66.98% up (unconditional)
Context
Macro coupling→
equity n/a (1y), regime Late-Cycle Warning
Volatility→
options normal · VRP +16.52pp · IV-rank 1.91
Options→
max-pain $63,000, spot -0.04%, PCR 0.16, 0d
Sources (9 knowledge objects · derived_from)
Each signal above is derived from a separately published, versioned knowledge object. Freshness per source:
- Cycle — as of 15 Aug 2026
- Flows — as of 13 Aug 2026
- Options — as of 15 Aug 2026
- Analogue — as of 15 Aug 2026
- Base rate — as of 15 Aug 2026
- Structure — as of 15 Aug 2026
- Volatility — as of 15 Aug 2026
- Correlation — as of 9 Aug 2026
Related knowledge
This object draws on
- Derived frommarket_pulse (BTC)→
- Derived frommarket_structure (BTC)→
- Derived frometf_flows→
- Derived frommarket_analogue (BTC)→
- Derived fromreturn_probability (BTC)→
- Derived fromasset_correlation (BTC)→
- Derived fromvolatility_premium (BTC)→
- Derived frommax_pain (BTC)→
- Referencesbtc_liquidity_fair_value (BTC)→
This is a synthesized, explainable market state for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Historical and base-rate figures describe the past; they do not predict the future.
Dig into the data
Explore the Bitcoin cycle, on-chain charts and backtests behind each signal.
← Bitcoin chartsUpdated 15 Aug 2026