Context Chart
Price history with clickable state zones: when did this state hold, what followed, and what is that worth as evidence — instead of labelled claims.
Zone object for this combination not yet available.
Methodology
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What this surface does
Each shaded zone is a named catalog state, defined on the asset's OWN expanding percentile rank (never a BTC-calibrated absolute threshold). The bands mark time periods during which the state held — not price areas, and not a judgement. Clicking answers: how often did this occur, what followed, how wide was the spread, and what did the unconditional benchmark of the same era look like.
Why it often says "no verdict"
A verdict requires at least 8 mutually independent episodes; independent means the outcome windows do not overlap (each horizon uses its own independence window of 30/90/180/365 days). For long horizons that gate is structurally out of reach on the available history — the panel says so explicitly instead of delivering a number that is not evidence. The episodes, distributions and benchmarks are still shown: that is the honest context a labelled "it was like this before, now again" leaves out.
Context Chart — historical state zones (BTC/ETH/SOL)
Data as of 2026-09-06 · updated daily
Named market states defined on each asset's OWN expanding percentile rank, drawn as time-period zones over the price history. Each zone answers: how often did this state occur, what followed (per-horizon independent episodes), and how does it compare to the unconditional drift of the same era. Where fewer than 8 independent episodes exist, the surface says "no verdict" — including whether the gate is structurally out of reach on the available history.
- Lowest 5% vs. own 200d avg
- 36 matching days across 2 stretches since 2020-04-13
- Highest 5% vs. own 200d avg
- 62 matching days across 4 stretches since 2020-04-13
- Weekly RSI: lowest 5% (own history)
- 155 matching days across 6 stretches since 2020-04-13
- Cheap + oversold (own history)
- 133 matching days across 5 stretches since 2020-04-13
Zones are catalog presets (declared hypotheses, no free search space), evaluated point-in-time: percentile ranks use only data up to each day. Precomputed daily as zone_base_rate knowledge objects, free tier, also available via the API and the MCP connector (arena_get_knowledge).