Dormancy Flow
Dormancy Flow uses circulating supply and the HODL waves to measure how fast the supply dormant for at least a year shrinks or grows relative to issuance. Above zero, old coins move faster than issuance adds new ones. The chain sees only movement, not a change of owner. Measured: 30-day sum over the past two years โ309,000 to +561,000 BTC, against about 13,400 BTC of issuance per month; across six price lows since 2021 its low came a median 9.5 days before the price low (range โ41 to +118 days) โ anecdotes, not a finding.
- Formula:
- Dormancy Flow = ฮ Umlaufmenge โ ฮ (Umlaufmenge ร ฮฃ HODL-Wellen โฅ 1 J / 100) ยท 30-Tage-Summe
- Originator:
- Widely used calculation (elsewhere "Apparent Demand"); here derived in-house under a neutral name
- Data source:
- Eigene Ableitung aus BRK: brk_circulating_supply + hodl_waves (btc_chart_metrics.dormancy_flow, Cron btc-metrics-onchain Batch E, nur abgeschlossene UTC-Tage)
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library โ try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else โ buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy โBuy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule โ week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy โMore Bitcoin indicators
Is crypto-internal liquidity expanding or contracting? Stablecoin supply, spot-ETF flows and realized-cap change as 30-day impulses on one percentile scale โ with breadth, dispersion and a declared composition. A state, not a signal.
Difference between market cap and realized cap, normalised by standard deviation. Values above 5 mark the top region (4 of 5 historical bull tops), below 0 every bottom.
BTC price coloured by MVRV Z-Score regime โ from deep accumulation (green) to euphoria (red). Makes valuation phases visible over time.