Pi Cycle Top
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator compares the 111-day to the 350-day moving average × 2. When the shorter line crosses the longer one, a cycle top often follows within days — the signal nailed every top in 2013, 2017 and 2021.
- Formula:
- 111d SMA × 2 vs. 350d SMA
- Originator:
- Philip Swift (LookIntoBitcoin, 2019)
- Data source:
- Binance OHLC (derived)
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library — try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The classic trend-following signal — when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA, the trend has flipped bullish.
Open strategy →Two EMAs plus an ATR-based neutral zone — like the commercial Larsson Line, but tunable, transparent, and backtested. Choose your bias.
Open strategy →More Bitcoin indicators
Current BTC price divided by the 200-day moving average. Below 1 historically bearish, above 2.4 marks the top 0.5% quantile.
Logarithmic regression on BTC price since 2010 with nine colour bands — from "Fire Sale" deep blue to "Maximum Bubble" red.
What happens if the next 4-year cycle plays out like 2022-2026, 2018-2022 or 2014-2018? Multiplicative overlay paths from today's price.