Calendar-aligned what-if projection: overlays the last three completed 4-year cycles multiplicatively onto the next four years. Day-precise alignment, three paths plus history. Diminishing-returns thesis makes the most recent cycle (C3, orange) the most plausible default scenario. Three further views: “since halving” (days since halving, multiple of the halving price), “block time (h)” (cycle progress in halving cycles: block height minus halving block, over 210,000 — block height per day from BRK) and “bear comparison” (days since the cycle high, decline from the high — 2013–15, 2017–18, 2021–22 and the current cycle).