Cycle Projection
Calendar-aligned what-if projection: overlays the last three completed 4-year cycles multiplicatively onto the next four years. Day-precise alignment, three paths plus history. Diminishing-returns thesis makes the most recent cycle (C3, orange) the most plausible default scenario.
- Formula:
- BTC_proj(t) = BTC_today × (BTC_old(t − 4y) ÷ BTC_old(today − 4y))
- Originator:
- Backtesting Arena (calendar-aligned variant)
- Data source:
- Binance + TradingView (BTC-USD daily seit 2010-07)
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library — try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else — buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy →Buy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule — week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy →More Bitcoin indicators
111-day SMA vs. 350-day SMA × 2. Classic top signal by Philip Swift — historical crossovers nailed every BTC bull-run top to within days.
Current BTC price divided by the 200-day moving average. Below 1 historically bearish, above 2.4 marks the top 0.5% quantile.
Logarithmic regression on BTC price since 2010 with nine colour bands — from "Fire Sale" deep blue to "Maximum Bubble" red.