Implied vs Realized Volatility
This chart contrasts the volatility expected by the options market (Deribit DVOL) with the actually realized 30-day volatility. The shaded area is the variance risk premium (VRP = implied − realized) — usually positive because options are "expensive" on average; negative only in stress phases when the market swings more than priced in.
- Formula:
- VRP = DVOL − annualized_stddev(daily_log_returns, 30d)
- Originator:
- Deribit DVOL · VIX analogue
- Data source:
- Deribit DVOL + realisierte Vola aus BTC-Tagesrenditen (deribit_iv_snapshots)
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library — try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
Buy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule — week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy →The benchmark for everything else — buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy →More Bitcoin indicators
Aggregated sentiment score 0-100 (alternative.me). Extreme fear historically marks bottoms, extreme greed marks top zones — e.g. March 2020 (8), November 2022 (20), April 2021 (95).
Current percentage distance to all-time high plus historical comparison of every bear market (depth, duration, recovery time).
Heatmap matrix with rows per year and columns January–December. Bottom row: average per month — historically the best months are October and April.