Buy Now or Wait for the Dip? — Decision Math
Three calculators, one honest question: deploy now, wait for the dip, or split? Worked article example (target 2×, dip at 0.5×, 30% dip probability, €1,000): all-in-now €2,000 expected · wait-for-dip €1,900 · 50/50 split €1,950.
- All in now (EV, example)
- €2,000
- Wait for dip (EV, example)
- €1,900
- Split 50/50 (EV, example)
- €1,950
- Dip-safe leverage ceiling (−20% dip)
- 4.88×
Compare mode ranks the three entry strategies by expected value across every dip probability. Allocation mode finds the risk-adjusted optimal split between deploying now and reserving for the dip (CRRA utility, γ=1 = Kelly growth-optimal). Leverage mode shows the liquidation price of a leveraged long and the dip-safe ceiling — the leverage at which your own expected dip becomes a total loss.
Everything is computed in your browser from your own assumptions; no data leaves the page. Not financial advice — a decision aid for thinking clearly about assumptions you already hold.
Dip Decision Tool
Buy now, wait for the dip, or split? Make your assumptions explicit — the rest is math.
Buy Now or Wait for the Dip?
All-in-now is EV-optimal while the dip probability stays below 33%. Above that, waiting wins.
- Expected value is not risk. Maximising plain EV always points to an all-or-nothing corner. An interior split is only "optimal" once you price in risk — that is what the γ slider does.
- γ = 1 is growth-optimal (Kelly-style). It maximises long-run compounding, not a single outcome. Lower γ chases the highest average; higher γ protects against missing or losing.
- Garbage in, garbage out. The prices and probabilities are your subjective assumptions. The tool makes them explicit and consistent — it does not make them true.