RSI on 4-Week Candles
A very slow RSI: 14 candles of 28 days each, pinned to a fixed calendar anchor. Marked are crossings above 70 (from below) and below 30 (from above); below the chart, the scorecard. Measured 2026-09-25: after the 11 crossings above 70 since 2009, BTC stood a median +247 % higher twelve months later, against +93 % normal — not a top signal, closer to momentum. The RSI never fell below 30. With 11 cases the verdict stays "anecdote"; from 2017 (4 cases) the picture turns mixed. Descriptive, not a signal.
- Formula:
- RSI-14 (Wilder) auf 28-T-Kerzen · Kerze = floor(Tag seit 1970 / 28) · Bilanz: ln(Kurs t+h / Kurs t) ab Kreuzungsschluss, h = 91/182/365 T, gegen Mittel aller Kerzen + Placebo (1.000 Ziehungen)
- Originator:
- J. Welles Wilder (RSI, 1978); 4-week candles + scorecard: own convention
- Data source:
- btc_price_daily (TradingView-Backfill ab 2009 + Binance-Fill), Rechnung compute-on-read im Browser (indicators/rsiFourWeek.ts)
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