Reserve Risk
Reserve Risk relates price to the "HODL bank" — the accumulated opportunity holders left on the table by not selling. High conviction at a low price makes the value small: historically the zone where bottoms formed. Two limits: the number is tiny by construction (1e-6 scale), and its ceilings fall structurally because the HODL bank compounds forever — a threshold from an old cycle does not transfer. Descriptive, not a signal.
- Formula:
- Reserve Risk = Price ÷ HODL Bank · HODL Bank = Σ (Coin Days Destroyed-adjusted opportunity cost)
- Originator:
- Hans Hauge (2019)
- Data source:
- BRK (Bitcoin Research Kit, brk_reserve_risk, point-in-time in btc_chart_metrics)
Strategies to backtest
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