Bitcoin Return Probability — Base Rates
As of 2 Jul 2026 · unconditional · mature-era history since 1 Dec 2018 (2770 days)
Over any 1-year window, BTC returned a median of +56.07% (68.2% of windows positive), with a -40.79% … +284.36% 80% band. A ≥20% drawdown occurred in 48.59% of windows.
Base rate over ≈7 independent years — not a forecast.
Forward-return distribution by horizon
| Horizon | Median | p10 … p90 | Positive | P(≥20% DD) | P(new ATH) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | +2.19% | -17.81% … +31.5% | 55.77% | 11.68% | 23.1% |
| 90 days | +7.88% | -26.72% … +69.85% | 58.49% | 31.93% | 38.87% |
| 180 days | +21.17% | -38.71% … +153.57% | 63.8% | 44.15% | 56.39% |
| 1 year | +56.07% | -40.79% … +284.36% | 68.2% | 48.59% | 74.94% |
Method & caveats
- Bewusster Zuschnitt auf die Mature-Era ab 2018-12-01; die Extremjahre 2011–2017 sind ausgenommen und würden die Kennzahlen stark nach oben verzerren (offengelegter Researcher-Degree-of-Freedom).
- Unbedingte Single-Asset-Basisrate → implizit konditioniert darauf, dass BTC überlebt hat (inhärenter Survivorship-Bias bei Single-Asset).
- Median/Quantile sind die belastbaren Kennzahlen; der Mean ist über überlappende Jahres-Fenster autokorreliert und von wenigen Bull-Run-Start-Clustern dominiert (bei wenigen unabhängigen Jahren fragil).
This is the unconditionalbase rate. For the view conditioned on today's market fingerprint, see the historical analogues.
For research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal.
← Market State TodayUpdated 2 Jul 2026