Bitcoin Return Probability — Base Rates
As of 16 Aug 2026 · unconditional · mature-era history since 1 Dec 2018 (2815 days)
Over any 1-year window, BTC returned a median of +52.55% (66.95% of windows positive), with a -43.82% … +283.3% 80% band. A ≥20% drawdown occurred in 49.53% of windows.
Base rate over ≈7 independent years — not a forecast.
Forward-return distribution by horizon
| Horizon | Median | p10 … p90 | Positive | P(≥20% DD) | P(new ATH) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | +2.11% | -17.61% … +31.27% | 55.98% | 11.49% | 22.73% |
| 90 days | +7.28% | -26.57% … +69.02% | 57.54% | 32.7% | 38.24% |
| 180 days | +19.42% | -38.43% … +152.09% | 62.75% | 44.58% | 55.42% |
| 1 year | +52.55% | -43.82% … +283.3% | 66.95% | 49.53% | 75.4% |
Method & caveats
- Bewusster Zuschnitt auf die Mature-Era ab 2018-12-01; die Extremjahre 2011–2017 sind ausgenommen und würden die Kennzahlen stark nach oben verzerren (offengelegter Researcher-Degree-of-Freedom).
- Unbedingte Single-Asset-Basisrate → implizit konditioniert darauf, dass BTC überlebt hat (inhärenter Survivorship-Bias bei Single-Asset).
- Median/Quantile sind die belastbaren Kennzahlen; der Mean ist über überlappende Jahres-Fenster autokorreliert und von wenigen Bull-Run-Start-Clustern dominiert (bei wenigen unabhängigen Jahren fragil).
This is the unconditional base rate. For the view conditioned on today's market fingerprint, see the historical analogues.
Related knowledge
For research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal.
← Market State TodayUpdated 16 Aug 2026