Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

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61–72 of 153 posts · page 6 of 13

Tools

How Options Actually Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Most people meet options as a lottery ticket. That hides almost everything that matters — including who sells you the call and what they do next. How options work, what they're for, and why dealer hedging (gamma) can either calm the market or accelerate it.

optionsderivativesdelta-hedging+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Futures Actually Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Futures sit underneath a huge share of what moves markets — yet most explanations stop at "a bet on price." What a future really is, what it's for, and the part almost nobody explains: who takes the other side, and how they manage the risk.

futuresderivativesleverage+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
Strategy

RSI(2) Mean Reversion Backtest: Why We Retired It for Stocks

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

RSI(2) mean reversion, honestly backtested (2018–2026): on stocks it loses badly to buy & hold; on crypto it wins — for an uncomfortable reason.

backtestingmean-reversionrsi-2+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
Market Analysis

Why People Really Trade — and the Honey-Trap Industry Waiting for Them

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Most people don't trade out of greed but out of fear — cash bleeds in silence. That necessity feeds an industry built to drain those traders. Why the only durable defense is learning to verify.

inflationwhy-people-tradetrading-scams+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
Backtesting

Why your Sharpe ratio lies — and how we correct for it

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Every additional backtest run increases the chance of finding good results by luck. The Deflated Sharpe Ratio (DSR) corrects for exactly this: it measures whether your result is real — or the best noise from N trials. Pro+ feature.

deflated-sharpeoverfittingbacktesting+2
Jun 14, 20261 min
Tools

SQN, Expectancy, Profit Factor — the new backtest result panel

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Win rate alone says little. The new Details tab shows four metrics serious backtester care about: SQN, Expectancy, Profit Factor, and a monthly/yearly breakdown of every trade.

BacktestingMethodikSQN+2
Jun 13, 20261 min
Market Analysis

The Four-Year Cycle That Isn't One — What Bitcoin Can Learn from Pigs, Chips, and Ships

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The Bitcoin four-year cycle isn't in the code — only the halving supply schedule is. What real cycles (pigs, chips, ships) teach us about the difference between a causal cycle and a fitted narrative.

bitcoinfour-year-cyclehalving+3
Jun 12, 20261 min
Tools

The Bitcoin Power Law, in Plain English: What Holds, What Doesn't

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

There's a way to draw Bitcoin's price that turns fifteen years of booms, crashes and mania into something almost boring: a nearly straight line.

bitcoinpower-lawmetcalfe-law+3
Jun 12, 20261 min
Market Analysis

SpaceX IPO: Buy the Hype or Wait? What the Biggest IPOs Did in Their First 6 Months

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Tomorrow, SpaceX is expected to do something no company has done before: raise roughly $75 billion in a single offering.

spacexipolockup-expiration+3
Jun 11, 20261 min
Tools

The Invisible Settlement Layer: Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and the Kill Switch

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The most consequential Bitcoin payments story of the past year isn't a price chart. It's a transaction you'll never see.

bitcoinlightning-networkstablecoins+5
Jun 11, 20261 min
Tools

Nobody Sees the Future — Why No AI Trading Tool Can Beat the Market

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

LLMs don't trade profitably. But why would anyone expect them to? The honest answer is uncomfortable: nobody can see the future, and markets are explicitly the opposite of a forecasting machine — they're a mechanism for the ongoing negotiation of disagreement. On the Grossman-Stiglitz paradox, why one side of every trade is convinced it's smarter than the other, and why AI trading tools mathematically neutralize themselves the moment they become widespread.

MarktphilosophieGrossman-StiglitzEffiziente Märkte+5
Jun 11, 20261 min
Strategy

MACD Cross is live — two modes from one classic

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A new strategy is live: Gerald Appel's MACD from the 1970s, now fully tunable (default 12/26/9). Two trade modes — classic signal cross or histogram flip — give you a reactive and a confirming variant from one indicator.

BacktestingCryptoMACD+3
Jun 11, 20261 min
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