Arena Blog

If a strategy is almost always wrong, doing the opposite sounds like a winning strategy. Tested on the three weakest daily strategies on the platform and ten large coins since 2017: the flipped version beats buy and hold in 5 of 30 cases. A bad strategy rarely has a wrong signal. It usually has an arbitrary one, plus fees, and flipping keeps the fees. Two numbers tell you beforehand whether flipping can work at all.

Measured by drawdown, the 2026 bear market was the mildest of bitcoin's big cycles: −53 % against −77 % to −93 % before. Measured in time, it was the worst: the low matched a price from five and a quarter years earlier, further back than any low since 2010. And against its own history, bitcoin was not cheap at any low since 2017. Three numbers for every bear market, and what each tells you before you call bitcoin a bargain.

Ichimoku is usually traded with 9, 26 and 52 and with the rule "only buy above the cloud". Both were tested on crypto from 2018 to October 2026. The cloud rule lowered the result on all ten of today's largest coins, and on bitcoin and ether the traditional numbers did no better than randomly drawn ones. What that means for your settings.

A popular framework says: cut a strategy's position in half when its 90-day Sharpe drops below the backtest's 5th percentile, pause it at 1.5x the backtest drawdown. Simulated, those rules cut eight in ten healthy strategies to half size within three years and leave four in five strategies without any edge running through their first year. What to check instead.

The anchored VWAP strategy draws an average-price line from a starting point you pick, such as the last low, and buys while price stays above it. Its result depends on that starting point. On six years of Bitcoin, none of five common anchor rules placed the line better than chance, and the 52-week low did worse than 99 percent of random anchors. Why that happens, why the charts still look convincing, and what to use instead.

Since 2011 Bitcoin has fallen 30 percent within a month 19 times. How often that happens today, how it fits with falling volatility, how far the drop usually went, and what that means for the size of your position.

When half the top altcoins beat Bitcoin, an altcoin season usually follows. Yet in 11 of 13 cases since 2020, switching to altcoins meant falling behind Bitcoin, whether you bought the leaders or the rest. Five checks and what each one tells you.

Willy Woo labelled the sell walls in Bitcoin's order book "fake" and the bids "organic". What spoofing means in law, how the first criminal case was actually proven, and the one number a heatmap would need to show.

A Bitcoin model published in August reaches $785,000 in 2030 at 60 % a year. Where its line stands today, what rate the target now needs, and why the same method would have given anything from $47,000 to $19 million.

When Bitcoin falls while the spot ETFs report inflows, it looks like support. Across 428 trading days the next day was a coin flip like any other, and within the next 20 days the usual pullback came anyway.

"3 for 3" sounds like a perfect Bitcoin indicator until you ask: three out of how many? Pi Cycle, where the count is known, hit four tops and stayed silent at four others, the highest among them.

"Stocks have recovered from every war" is true — for one country. After the April 1940 high the Dow needed four years and nine months to get back to even, in 1914 the exchange was closed for four and a half months, and St Petersburg, Vienna, Tokyo and Shanghai are missing from the statistics because their exchanges ceased to exist. Across 39 markets, a diversified investor is down in real terms after 30 years in 12 % of cases.