
Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
1–12 of 22 posts · page 1 of 2
Twenty One Capital (XXI): The Bitcoin Treasury, the mNAV Problem, and What Comes Next
Twenty One Capital holds 43,514 bitcoin and trades at either a 41% discount or a 26% premium, depending on who is counting. Where the company came from, how its engine works, and why mNAV needs four labels.
Bitcoin Yield: Where It Comes From — and What You Sell for It
Bitcoin has no native yield. Every advertised BTC yield is a sold option, a loan, or a token emission. And with the income ETFs, the window decides whether the answer flatters or destroys.
The Signal Layer: Read the Market Before You Trade
A good strategy in the wrong market phase still loses. Six free tools give you the market's temperature — Arena Pulse, macro regime, on-chain, the Bitcoin cycle, sentiment, and the signal traffic light. All share one honest trait: they describe the present, they don't predict the future.
Why Experts Forecast Worse Than Chimpanzees
A chimpanzee guessing at random beats educated experts on fact questions — and forecasters on predictions. That's not a punchline but the finding of several of the most-cited studies. Why it happens, what Michael Burry has to do with it, and why a real prediction needs two things: a what and a when.
On a Short Leash: How the US Pushes Its Debt to the Short End
The US Treasury increasingly funds itself with short-dated T-bills. That lowers cost today — and builds rollover risk for tomorrow. A methodical read on the mechanics behind the headlines.
AI in the Drug-Discovery Race: Shovels, Bets, Giants
Asking which company is well-positioned in the AI drug-discovery race is really three questions at once. We sort the field soberly into shovels, bets, and giants — and show which layer earns regardless of any single trial outcome.
Do Credit Flows Lead Crypto? What a Popular Chart Shows — and What It Doesn't
A chart claims to "prove" liquidity leads crypto. The thesis is serious — the chart isn't proof. What it shows, what it doesn't, and how to test it honestly.
When the Product Works but the Token Falls: The Zeus Network Case
zBTC runs, it's multi-chain, the product delivers — and the ZEUS token fell about 98%. How does that fit, and what does the road ahead look like? A sober tokenomics case study.
BIP-110 Chain-Split Fears: What's Really at Stake on August 7 — and What Isn't
"Bitcoin splits in August because miners disagree." The date is roughly right, the mechanism in that sentence isn't. What BIP-110 actually triggers — and what it doesn't.
STRC & MSTR Explained: Mechanics, Myths, Risks and Opportunities
STRC is below par and the debate is loud. We separate mechanics from myth: how STRC and MSTR work, the misconceptions circulating, and where the risk and the opportunity sit.
Why People Really Trade — and the Honey-Trap Industry Waiting for Them
Most people don't trade out of greed but out of fear — cash bleeds in silence. That necessity feeds an industry built to drain those traders. Why the only durable defense is learning to verify.
The Four-Year Cycle That Isn't One — What Bitcoin Can Learn from Pigs, Chips, and Ships
The Bitcoin four-year cycle isn't in the code — only the halving supply schedule is. What real cycles (pigs, chips, ships) teach us about the difference between a causal cycle and a fitted narrative.
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