Arena Blog

Across 18 midterm years since 1954 the S&P fell 17.7 percent from its high on average — but only 5 of them had a 19-percent drop inside the second half. What the number measures, how much of it reaches Bitcoin (through the S&P, not through yields), and why Bitcoin's own midterm-year bears come from the halving.

The 25 percent tipping point quoted in every adoption argument comes from a naming game with 18 to 30 players per group and no right answer. It counts people; prices respond to dollars. What tips in large portfolios is not understanding but the answer to one question: what happens to me if I am the only one at zero?

The CFA franc's end was announced in 2019. The rate has not moved since — and the binding part was never the part that was announced. What a currency peg costs, who sets the price of money for fourteen countries, and what it is costing Senegal and Central Africa right now.

A market fable in two acts — and what it is meant to teach.

Everyone says index money buys your stock forever. At the one moment that buying is visible, the price no longer moves. We then tested both directions on Bitcoin ETF flows — and only the backward one survived.

If money grows faster than output, where does it go if not into consumption? The question has a good answer. It just isn't the one in the chart everybody posts.

Berkshire sold two thirds of its Apple stake. The cost is put at 50, 130 and 167 billion — for the same event. The difference lies in two items almost nobody deducts.

Max pain, the yen carry trade, rate cuts, the four-year cycle: seven trading myths, each held against the numbers. The answer is almost never "myth" — usually it is something less comfortable.

Twenty One Capital holds 43,514 bitcoin and trades at either a 41% discount or a 26% premium, depending on who is counting. Where the company came from, how its engine works, and why mNAV needs four labels.

Bitcoin has no native yield. Every advertised BTC yield is a sold option, a loan, or a token emission. And with the income ETFs, the window decides whether the answer flatters or destroys.

A good strategy in the wrong market phase still loses. Six free tools give you the market's temperature — Arena Pulse, macro regime, on-chain, the Bitcoin cycle, sentiment, and the signal traffic light. All share one honest trait: they describe the present, they don't predict the future.

A chimpanzee guessing at random beats educated experts on fact questions — and forecasters on predictions. That's not a punchline but the finding of several of the most-cited studies. Why it happens, what Michael Burry has to do with it, and why a real prediction needs two things: a what and a when.