Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

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1–12 of 46 posts · page 1 of 4

★ FeaturedTools

Backtesting Arena Is Now a Claude Connector

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Backtesting Arena can now be connected to claude.ai with a single click — 65 tools for Bitcoin cycle, on-chain data, macro regime and validated backtests. Instead of generic web-search answers, Claude pulls real, DSR-corrected and point-in-time data. Plus a new interactive tool: the Dip Decision calculator.

ClaudeMCPConnector+5
Jul 5, 20261 min
★ FeaturedTools

We Just Shipped an API That Charges $0.01 Per Call — In USDC, On-Chain, No Account

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Phase 4 is live: the same Bitcoin cycle data, on-chain indicators, and aggregated strategy insights now reachable through three channels — REST, MCP, and x402 pay-per-call in USDC on Base. No account required for the third. An AI agent gets HTTP 402, signs a USDC authorization, retries, and has the data three seconds later. What's actually live, why we built it this way, and the Coinbase detour that cost us a day.

x402MCPREST-API+7
May 23, 20261 min
Tools

Building for AI Agents: 10 Lessons From Running 73 MCP Tools

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Your most thorough reader gets the least to read. Ten places where building for agents differs from building for people, with numbers from production.

mcpai-agentsapis+1
Jul 29, 20261 min
Tools

DCA vs. Lump Sum: What 346 Bitcoin Entries Actually Show

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

DCA vs. lump sum for Bitcoin? Across 346 historical entries the lump sum won 60 % of the time — but DCA halved the downside. The distribution instead of an opinion.

dcaeinmalkauflump-sum+7
Jul 20, 20261 min
Tools

Oracle Manipulation in DeFi: What Happens When a Protocol Trusts Bad Data

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Oracle manipulation drained millions from Ostium — not through a contract bug, but through bad data. The failure modes when DeFi protocols trust their price feeds.

oracledefisecurity+2
Jul 17, 20261 min
Tools

Consensus Is Not an Edge: Why a Quorum of Correlated Simulations Isn't One

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

An AI swarm turned $1,000 into nearly a million? The number falls apart at its own source. Why consensus from correlated simulations is not an edge.

simulationbacktestingkonsens+3
Jul 17, 20261 min
Tools

Market Data Licensing: How Price Data Is Licensed — and Why We're Switching Off Four Asset Classes

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Market data licensing is tiered, and the decisive line runs between derived values and raw prices. What that costs — and why we're switching off four asset classes for now.

market-datalicensingplatform
Jul 14, 20261 min
Tools

What Agents Actually Pay For in Finance Research — The Provider's View

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Everyone talks about the agent economy. From the provider side — I run x402-paid financial endpoints — what agents actually buy today is sober: ingredients. And where the line runs between real and vision.

x402ai-agentsagentic-economy+2
Jul 1, 20261 min
Tools

Bitcoin On-Chain: How Big Is the Wrapped-BTC Ecosystem Really?

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

"Bitcoin is going productive" — they say. Wrapped BTC brings BTC into DeFi. How big is it really, who dominates, where are the catches? A sober map.

bitcoindefiwrapped-btc+2
Jul 1, 20261 min
Tools

40,000 Backtests Later: Which of Our Own Strategies We're Killing

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

We audited 40,000 of our own backtests — and benched several of our own strategies in the process. Here is what we killed, what we reactivated, and the uncomfortable core lesson: whether a strategy is "good" depends less on the strategy than on the asset class it runs in.

backtestingstrategy-curationradical-honesty+4
Jul 1, 20261 min
Tools

The Agentic Brokerage: Why AI Signals Make Honest Backtesting More Important, Not Less

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A thesis says trading platforms are going "agentic" — AI monitors, signals, executes. The structural part is right. The blind spot sits where money is lost.

aiagentsbacktesting+2
Jun 30, 20261 min
Tools

How Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Work — and Why They Decay

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A 2x ETF promises double the index move — but only for a single day. The daily reset creates a decay that quietly grinds it down in choppy markets. How it works, who's on the other side, and why "×2 the index" is the most classic backtest mistake there is.

leveraged-etfsinverse-etfsvolatility-decay+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
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