Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

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73–84 of 153 posts · page 7 of 13

Strategy

Bollinger Bands + RSI is live — the strict mean-reversion play

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A new strategy is live: BB+RSI combines two classics into a strict mean-reversion setup. BUY only when price is at the lower Bollinger band AND RSI is oversold — two conditions, fewer false signals. Pro+.

BacktestingCryptoBollinger Bands+3
Jun 11, 20261 min
Strategy

EMA Cross is live — the configurable cousin of Golden Cross

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A new strategy is live: two configurable EMAs cross — BUY on the upward cross, SELL on the downward cross. Default 9/21, faster and more tunable than Golden Cross. Plus optional volume- or price-confirmation filter to fight whipsaws.

BacktestingCryptoEMA+3
Jun 11, 20261 min
Strategy

New strategy: Take-Profit / Re-Entry — lock in gains, buy the dip

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The Take-Profit / Re-Entry strategy combines two simple rules: sell when your target gain is reached, re-enter when price drops enough from the post-sell high. No indicator noise — just price and two parameters.

StrategieCryptoBacktesting+2
Jun 10, 20261 min
Tools

You're Building with AI Coding Agents. Your Codebase Is Drifting. Here's Why — and the Fix.

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

We wrote 500 lines of rules. Claude read them — and still wrote text-[13px] instead of text-xs. The mistake wasn't Claude. The mistake was confusing documentation with enforcement.

EngineeringClaude CodeAI+2
Jun 10, 20261 min
Tools

Grid trading bots, honestly evaluated — what "consistent profits" leaves out

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Grid bots are marketed as "low-risk" and, with AI, as a source of "consistent profits." We checked the claims against the mechanics: a grid earns on sideways oscillation, not trends — and "always trading" means trend-chasing. A fair breakdown, plus how to actually evaluate a grid bot.

BacktestingCryptoGrid Trading+3
Jun 8, 20261 min
Strategy

Funding Rates as a BTC Signal: We Tested It. It Doesn't Work The Way You Would Think

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

High funding rates signal overheated longs — a warning. Negative funding means shorts capitulating — a buy signal. The logic seems solid. We tested it across 6.7 years of BTC data. The results were the opposite of what we expected.

strategy-researchbitcoinfunding-rates+1
Jun 7, 20261 min
Strategy

Bollinger Bands Squeeze is live — when the bands get tight

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A new strategy is live: John Bollinger's classic volatility-cycle play. Wait for the bands to squeeze tight, then ride the long breakout above the upper band. Default 20/2.0/0.1. Pro+.

BacktestingCryptoBollinger Bands+3
Jun 6, 20261 min
Backtesting

Look-Ahead-Bias — The Most Common Mistake in Self-Built Backtests, and Why 200% Returns Usually Lie

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Most traders writing their own backtests accidentally look into the future. The result: spectacular backtests, collapsing live performance. A look at the subtlest methodology mistake in systematic trading — from the common `shift(-N)` to the innocuous `.mean()` aggregation without rolling window — and why we manually check every Backtesting Arena strategy for bias before release.

Look-Ahead-BiasBacktestingMethodik+5
Jun 4, 20261 min
Market Analysis

AI-Crypto Is Not a Monolith: Four Categories — and the One Test That Separates Substance From Narrative

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

"AI-crypto" trades as one sector but is at least four different things on different layers of the stack: payment rails (Solana, Base, Sui, Tempo), agent frameworks (Virtuals, ElizaOS, Fetch/ASI), decentralized intelligence (Bittensor) and decentralized compute (Render, Akash, io.net). A map of the most relevant projects per category — and one test cutting across all of them to show where real substance sits and where a narrative was simply built around a token: is the token structurally necessary, or just present?

AI-CryptoAI-AgentsDePIN+10
Jun 1, 20261 min
Tools

Which Layer 1 Is Built Best for AI Agent Payments? ETH, SOL, SUI — and the Chains Leapfrogging Them

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

AI agents pay per API call, per query, per compute slice — median $0.01–0.10. That kills card rails and makes the blockchain architecture the real question. A detailed comparison of Ethereum, Solana and Sui against the actual requirements (sub-cent fees, sub-second finality, programmable spend limits, identity) — plus the purpose-built payment chains Tempo and Arc that may be technically further ahead but barely adopted. The honest answer has no single winner.

AI-AgentsAgentic PaymentsStablecoins+9
Jun 1, 20261 min
Backtesting

How to Backtest Token Unlocks: FDV, Dilution & the Hyperliquid Lesson

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A buy signal fires — but the unlock calendar says a large tranche of supply hits the market in nine days. Do you take the trade? Using Hyperliquid and the FDV debate as the case: what the FDV-to-market-cap ratio really means, what token unlocks empirically do to price — and the one point-in-time trap that quietly makes almost every retroactive test worthless.

TokenomicsFDVToken-Unlocks+6
May 30, 20261 min
Market Structure

Three Waves Instead of One — What the LTH Distribution Pattern Says About the Bitcoin Cycle

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Before 2021, every Bitcoin cycle had one major distribution phase in which long-term holders transferred coins to short-term holders. The current cycle broke that pattern — we've seen three separate distribution waves, each triggered by independent institutional demand shocks (ETF launch, 100k break, summer 2025 rally). An honest engagement with four possible readings, why the old 4-year heuristic is methodologically damaged, and what that means for cycle-based trading strategies.

LTH-SupplySTH-SupplyBitcoin-Zyklus+5
May 27, 20261 min
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