Arena Blog

If a strategy is almost always wrong, doing the opposite sounds like a winning strategy. Tested on the three weakest daily strategies on the platform and ten large coins since 2017: the flipped version beats buy and hold in 5 of 30 cases. A bad strategy rarely has a wrong signal. It usually has an arbitrary one, plus fees, and flipping keeps the fees. Two numbers tell you beforehand whether flipping can work at all.

A popular framework says: cut a strategy's position in half when its 90-day Sharpe drops below the backtest's 5th percentile, pause it at 1.5x the backtest drawdown. Simulated, those rules cut eight in ten healthy strategies to half size within three years and leave four in five strategies without any edge running through their first year. What to check instead.

In June, STRC fell to $75 and critics warned of a death spiral. The dividend kept coming, Strategy kept its bitcoin, and STRC is back at $99. What Michael Saylor's "Digital Credit" playbook did in practice, what it cost shareholders, and what comes next.

Across 405 crypto pairs, buy and hold loses money on 83 % of them. What 197,435 backtests say about what a strategy does first, what decides whether it earns, and why the bar for any altcoin is Bitcoin.

A backtest has more parameters than the strategy description lists. The start day of a 3-day candle grid alone moves annual return by 6.66 points on average. What that means for every interval comparison, and the three questions that make the effect visible.

25+ strategies, and the honest question is never "which is best?" It's: which fits what, and when? Four truths that run through the whole library — timeframe decides, "beats B&H" often means losing less, win rate isn't profit, and fit beats breadth.

STRC is below par and the debate is loud. We separate mechanics from myth: how STRC and MSTR work, the misconceptions circulating, and where the risk and the opportunity sit.

A new strategy is live: Gerald Appel's MACD from the 1970s, now fully tunable (default 12/26/9). Two trade modes — classic signal cross or histogram flip — give you a reactive and a confirming variant from one indicator.

A new strategy is live: BB+RSI combines two classics into a strict mean-reversion setup. BUY only when price is at the lower Bollinger band AND RSI is oversold — two conditions, fewer false signals. Pro+.

A new strategy is live: two configurable EMAs cross — BUY on the upward cross, SELL on the downward cross. Default 9/21, faster and more tunable than Golden Cross. Plus optional volume- or price-confirmation filter to fight whipsaws.

The Take-Profit / Re-Entry strategy combines two simple rules: sell when your target gain is reached, re-enter when price drops enough from the post-sell high. No indicator noise — just price and two parameters.

A new strategy is live: John Bollinger's classic volatility-cycle play. Wait for the bands to squeeze tight, then ride the long breakout above the upper band. Default 20/2.0/0.1. Pro+.