Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

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49–60 of 153 posts · page 5 of 13

Market Structure

The Gap-Fill Myth: Do Price Gaps Really Fill — and the End of the CME Gap

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

"Price gaps always fill" is a myth. What the evidence actually shows — for stock gaps, and for the CME gap, which became history in May 2026.

gap-fillcme-gapbitcoin+3
Jun 19, 20261 min
Market Analysis

STRC & MSTR Explained: Mechanics, Myths, Risks and Opportunities

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

STRC is below par and the debate is loud. We separate mechanics from myth: how STRC and MSTR work, the misconceptions circulating, and where the risk and the opportunity sit.

strcmstrstrategy+3
Jun 19, 20261 min
Market Structure

The Yen Carry Trade, Explained: How It Moves Stocks and Crypto

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The yen carry trade is the hidden fuel of global markets. With real numbers: how it works, why it blew up in 2024, and what it means for stocks and Bitcoin today.

yen-carry-tradebojbitcoin+3
Jun 18, 20261 min
Strategy

Does Dual Momentum Really Beat Buy & Hold? We Backtested It.

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Dual Momentum supposedly beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown. Our GTAA-5 backtest (2007–2026) says otherwise: not on return — but clearly on drawdown.

dual-momentumgtaabacktest+4
Jun 16, 20261 min
Strategy

The 200-Day Line: Beats Buy & Hold on Crypto, Sleep-Well on Index ETFs

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The 200-day line is the most-cited trend filter in markets: invested above it, out below it. We tested it as a standalone strategy across 110 assets. The result is not one-size-fits-all — on crypto it beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown AND Sharpe; on index ETFs it gives up almost no return while nearly halving the drawdown; on single stocks it works poorly. An honest map of where regime timing pays and where it doesn't.

200 day moving averagefabertrend following+8
Jun 16, 20261 min
Strategy

From Elliott Wave to an Actual Trade Plan: A Tool That Makes Your Count Falsifiable

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Elliott Wave is subjective in real time. This tool doesn't count waves — it makes your count falsifiable: dip, target, invalidation set upfront, sized to risk.

elliott-wavefibonaccitrade-plan+3
Jun 16, 20261 min
Tools

How Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Work — and Why They Decay

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A 2x ETF promises double the index move — but only for a single day. The daily reset creates a decay that quietly grinds it down in choppy markets. How it works, who's on the other side, and why "×2 the index" is the most classic backtest mistake there is.

leveraged-etfsinverse-etfsvolatility-decay+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How ETFs Actually Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

An ETF trades like a stock but is really a basket. Why does its price stay glued to the basket's value? An invisible arbitrage crew. How ETFs work, who's on the other side when you buy — and which counterparties (swap, securities lending) almost nobody sees.

etfsauthorized-participantscreation-redemption+4
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Volatility (VIX) Futures Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Volatility futures don't trade a price — they trade expected movement, fear itself. How the VIX works, why you can't buy it directly, who sells the crash insurance, and why "Volmageddon" shows how dangerous the other side can get.

vixvolatility-futurescontango+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Perpetual Swaps and Funding Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The perpetual is crypto's most-traded derivative — a future that never expires. To stop it drifting from spot, longs and shorts pay each other funding. How it works, who's really on the other side of your leveraged long, and why funding flips whole strategies.

perpetual-swapsfunding-ratecrypto+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How CFDs Work — and Why the Broker Is on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

With a CFD you never own the underlying — you make a difference bet with your broker. That's what makes the other side delicate: depending on the model, the broker profits from your loss. How CFDs work, what the EU rules changed, and what really matters.

cfdsleveragebrokers+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Warrants and Knock-Outs Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Warrants and knock-out certificates are huge in German-speaking markets — and no instrument makes the other side this tangible: here the issuer is the seller, the market maker and the one quoting the price. How they work, what they're for, and why the barrier and issuer risk decide everything.

warrantsknock-out-certificatesleverage+3
Jun 15, 20261 min
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