
Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
49–60 of 153 posts · page 5 of 13
The Gap-Fill Myth: Do Price Gaps Really Fill — and the End of the CME Gap
"Price gaps always fill" is a myth. What the evidence actually shows — for stock gaps, and for the CME gap, which became history in May 2026.
STRC & MSTR Explained: Mechanics, Myths, Risks and Opportunities
STRC is below par and the debate is loud. We separate mechanics from myth: how STRC and MSTR work, the misconceptions circulating, and where the risk and the opportunity sit.
The Yen Carry Trade, Explained: How It Moves Stocks and Crypto
The yen carry trade is the hidden fuel of global markets. With real numbers: how it works, why it blew up in 2024, and what it means for stocks and Bitcoin today.
Does Dual Momentum Really Beat Buy & Hold? We Backtested It.
Dual Momentum supposedly beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown. Our GTAA-5 backtest (2007–2026) says otherwise: not on return — but clearly on drawdown.
The 200-Day Line: Beats Buy & Hold on Crypto, Sleep-Well on Index ETFs
The 200-day line is the most-cited trend filter in markets: invested above it, out below it. We tested it as a standalone strategy across 110 assets. The result is not one-size-fits-all — on crypto it beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown AND Sharpe; on index ETFs it gives up almost no return while nearly halving the drawdown; on single stocks it works poorly. An honest map of where regime timing pays and where it doesn't.
From Elliott Wave to an Actual Trade Plan: A Tool That Makes Your Count Falsifiable
Elliott Wave is subjective in real time. This tool doesn't count waves — it makes your count falsifiable: dip, target, invalidation set upfront, sized to risk.
How Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Work — and Why They Decay
A 2x ETF promises double the index move — but only for a single day. The daily reset creates a decay that quietly grinds it down in choppy markets. How it works, who's on the other side, and why "×2 the index" is the most classic backtest mistake there is.
How ETFs Actually Work — and Who's on the Other Side
An ETF trades like a stock but is really a basket. Why does its price stay glued to the basket's value? An invisible arbitrage crew. How ETFs work, who's on the other side when you buy — and which counterparties (swap, securities lending) almost nobody sees.
How Volatility (VIX) Futures Work — and Who's on the Other Side
Volatility futures don't trade a price — they trade expected movement, fear itself. How the VIX works, why you can't buy it directly, who sells the crash insurance, and why "Volmageddon" shows how dangerous the other side can get.
How Perpetual Swaps and Funding Work — and Who's on the Other Side
The perpetual is crypto's most-traded derivative — a future that never expires. To stop it drifting from spot, longs and shorts pay each other funding. How it works, who's really on the other side of your leveraged long, and why funding flips whole strategies.
How CFDs Work — and Why the Broker Is on the Other Side
With a CFD you never own the underlying — you make a difference bet with your broker. That's what makes the other side delicate: depending on the model, the broker profits from your loss. How CFDs work, what the EU rules changed, and what really matters.
How Warrants and Knock-Outs Work — and Who's on the Other Side
Warrants and knock-out certificates are huge in German-speaking markets — and no instrument makes the other side this tangible: here the issuer is the seller, the market maker and the one quoting the price. How they work, what they're for, and why the barrier and issuer risk decide everything.
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