Backtesting ArenaBacktesting Arena
Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

📬 New posts straight to your inbox:

1–12 of 16 posts · page 1 of 2

Backtesting

Bitcoin at 20× leverage on Polymarket: even when you get the direction right, you get liquidated in more than one week in three

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Polymarket has offered perps with up to 20× leverage since September. A Bitcoin long there is liquidated after a 2.5 % move against it. Since 2024, that happened within a week after 64 % of all entry days, including 38.5 % of the weeks Bitcoin ended higher.

LeverageLiquidationDerivatives+2
Oct 21, 20261 min
Asset Analysis

Is Derive the Next Hyperliquid? It Dominates On-Chain Options, but It Is Still Just a Niche

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Derive handles almost nine in ten dollars of option premium paid on blockchains, and its token DRV has risen ninefold in 2026. But on-chain options are a small slice of the market: Deribit alone trades about 14 times as much as all on-chain venues together, the liquidity costs up to twice what Derive earns in fees, and bought-back DRV goes into a treasury rather than being burned. What Derive does, who uses it, what was announced and what can be checked, and how DRV has done against bitcoin.

DerivativesDeFiMarket structure
Oct 19, 20261 min
Asset Analysis

Is Hyperliquid Decentralised – and What Does That Mean for Your Money?

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Hyperliquid calls itself decentralised. When markets got tight, a market was closed by vote, winning positions were force-closed and a bridge was paused. Who holds the stake behind those decisions, and what it means for traders and HYPE holders.

DerivativesDeFiRisk management+1
Oct 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Does Leverage Trading Work – and Why a 2x Never Doubles Your Asset Holdings, but Can Cost You Everything?

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Count in units of the asset, not in dollars: holding 1 coin always leaves you 1 coin. A 2x long gets closer to 2 the higher the price climbs, but never reaches it, and a halving takes everything. That holds for every asset. Since 2017, a 2x long would have been liquidated within a year after one in three entry days for Bitcoin and almost one in two for Ether.

LeverageLiquidationRisk management+2
Oct 5, 20261 min
Market Analysis

Popular Trading Myths, Tested Against the Actual Numbers

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Max pain, the yen carry trade, rate cuts, the four-year cycle: seven trading myths, each held against the numbers. The answer is almost never "myth" — usually it is something less comfortable.

BacktestingMarket structureMethodology+2
Aug 6, 20261 min
Market Analysis

Bitcoin Yield: Where It Comes From — and What You Sell for It

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Bitcoin has no native yield. Every advertised BTC yield is a sold option, a loan, or a token emission. And with the income ETFs, the window decides whether the answer flatters or destroys.

BitcoinDerivativesMethodology
Jul 14, 20261 min
Tools

How Volatility (VIX) Futures Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Volatility futures don't trade a price — they trade expected movement, fear itself. How the VIX works, why you can't buy it directly, who sells the crash insurance, and why "Volmageddon" shows how dangerous the other side can get.

Derivatives
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Perpetual Swaps and Funding Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The perpetual is crypto's most-traded derivative — a future that never expires. To stop it drifting from spot, longs and shorts pay each other funding. How it works, who's really on the other side of your leveraged long, and why funding flips whole strategies.

FundingCryptoLeverage+2
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How CFDs Work — and Why the Broker Is on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

With a CFD you never own the underlying — you make a difference bet with your broker. That's what makes the other side delicate: depending on the model, the broker profits from your loss. How CFDs work, what the EU rules changed, and what really matters.

LeverageDerivatives
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Warrants and Knock-Outs Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Warrants and knock-out certificates are huge in German-speaking markets — and no instrument makes the other side this tangible: here the issuer is the seller, the market maker and the one quoting the price. How they work, what they're for, and why the barrier and issuer risk decide everything.

LeverageDerivatives
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Options Actually Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Most people meet options as a lottery ticket. That hides almost everything that matters — including who sells you the call and what they do next. How options work, what they're for, and why dealer hedging (gamma) can either calm the market or accelerate it.

Derivatives
Jun 15, 20261 min
Tools

How Futures Actually Work — and Who's on the Other Side

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Futures sit underneath a huge share of what moves markets — yet most explanations stop at "a bet on price." What a future really is, what it's for, and the part almost nobody explains: who takes the other side, and how they manage the risk.

DerivativesLeverage
Jun 15, 20261 min
📬

Don't miss new blog posts

One short email per new post — strategies, backtests, market analysis. No spam, unsubscribe with one click anytime.

By subscribing you accept our privacy policy. We use Resend for delivery. Double opt-in confirmation required.