Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

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★ FeaturedTools

We Just Shipped an API That Charges $0.01 Per Call — In USDC, On-Chain, No Account

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Phase 4 is live: the same Bitcoin cycle data, on-chain indicators, and aggregated strategy insights now reachable through three channels — REST, MCP, and x402 pay-per-call in USDC on Base. No account required for the third. An AI agent gets HTTP 402, signs a USDC authorization, retries, and has the data three seconds later. What's actually live, why we built it this way, and the Coinbase detour that cost us a day.

x402MCPREST-API+7
May 23, 20261 min
★ FeaturedTools

We're Opening Our API: REST + MCP + (soon) x402

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

For 18 months we've been quietly building Backtesting Arena — a platform where 500+ users have run 10,000+ backtests across Bitcoin, stocks, ETFs, commodities, and forex. Daily cycle scores, on-chain indicators, sentiment dashboards, strategy insights. All powered by the same data layer that's been running on a private quasi-API.

APIMCPX402+1
May 21, 20261 min
★ FeaturedMarket Structure

AI Agents and Crypto Payments: Where This Is Really Heading

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

This is the crypto-rail deep-dive companion to our earlier piece [AI and the Future of Payment Systems](https://tradingstrategies.work/blog/ai-future-of-payment-systems-2026), which covered the broader fintech picture including Visa Intelligent Commerce and Mastercard Agent Pay. Here we zoom in on what's happening on the crypto layer specifically.

AI-AgentsCryptoPayment-Systems+3
May 15, 20261 min
Tools

What Agents Actually Pay For in Finance Research — The Provider's View

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Everyone talks about the agent economy. From the provider side — I run x402-paid financial endpoints — what agents actually buy today is sober: ingredients. And where the line runs between real and vision.

x402ai-agentsagentic-economy+2
Jul 1, 20261 min
Tools

Bitcoin On-Chain: How Big Is the Wrapped-BTC Ecosystem Really?

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

"Bitcoin is going productive" — they say. Wrapped BTC brings BTC into DeFi. How big is it really, who dominates, where are the catches? A sober map.

bitcoindefiwrapped-btc+2
Jul 1, 20261 min
Market Analysis

On a Short Leash: How the US Pushes Its Debt to the Short End

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The US Treasury increasingly funds itself with short-dated T-bills. That lowers cost today — and builds rollover risk for tomorrow. A methodical read on the mechanics behind the headlines.

MacroTreasuriesT-Bills+2
Jul 1, 20261 min
Strategy

When Fees Kill a Strategy: Why We Benched Our Second-Most-Popular One

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Our backtest engine used to compute returns before costs. We built a net-of-cost layer that re-prices every fill at a realistic fee — and it flipped our second-most-popular strategy negative after fees. Here is the math, the numbers, and why "beats buy-and-hold" is half a truth until you pay the fees.

net-of-costtrading-feesbacktesting+4
Jul 1, 20261 min
Market Analysis

AI in the Drug-Discovery Race: Shovels, Bets, Giants

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Asking which company is well-positioned in the AI drug-discovery race is really three questions at once. We sort the field soberly into shovels, bets, and giants — and show which layer earns regardless of any single trial outcome.

aidrug-discoverybiotech+4
Jul 1, 20261 min
Strategy

We Rebuilt Our Worst Strategy Correctly — It Worked — and Cut It Anyway

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Our Bollinger Squeeze strategy lost to Buy & Hold by double digits on crypto. Before deleting it, we rebuilt it to the modern standard (TTM Squeeze). The rebuild turned positive — and we retired it anyway. Why "it works now" isn't enough.

backtestingmethodologybollinger bands+4
Jul 1, 20261 min
Strategy

We Fixed Our Fibonacci Strategy — and Retired It Anyway

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Auditing 40,000 backtests, our Fibonacci strategy came up short. Before cutting it we asked: is it our config? A better exit made it 20 points better — and we retired it anyway. Why "beats Buy & Hold" isn't the bar.

backtestingmethodologyfibonacci+4
Jul 1, 20261 min
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