Your altcoin has a large unlock coming: several percent of all coins become free in one go, often for the team and early investors. The advice is usually the same: sell before. And a number seems to back it. In December 2024, the market maker Keyrock wrote: "90% of unlocks create negative price pressure, regardless of size or type."
Read that, and you start watching the unlock calendar. Counted across 1,247 unlocks, most of the loss has nothing to do with the unlock. The 90 percent mostly measures that altcoins lose against Bitcoin.
Around an unlock, three in four coins lose against Bitcoin
The calculation takes every one-off release that DefiLlama documents since January 2021 for coins traded on Binance: 1,247 unlocks of at least 1 percent of the free supply, on 92 coins. Each one is measured as the price against Bitcoin, from 30 days before to 30 days after the unlock.
In 75.2 percent of cases the coin ended down against Bitcoin, by a median 17.4 percent. That is not Keyrock's 90 percent, but three in four comes close.
It looks like a clear verdict against unlocks. What is missing is the comparison: how often do the same coins lose against Bitcoin when no unlock is coming at all?
Without an unlock, the same coins lose almost as often
As the comparison, every coin gets all windows of the same length with no unlock of at least 0.5 percent in the 45 days before or after. For 891 of the unlocks, their coin had enough such windows:
| 61 days against Bitcoin | with unlock | without unlock, same coin |
|---|---|---|
| Share ending down | 74.3 % | 69.5 % |
| Median | โ16.9 % | โ12.6 % |
Seven in ten windows end down even without an unlock. In two months, a typical altcoin here loses a good 12 percent against Bitcoin with no release at all. The unlock is not why altcoins lose against Bitcoin. It comes on top.
How much it adds can be read from the same comparison.
The unlock costs a little over four percent, and it is paid in advance
Comparing each unlock with the unlock-free windows of its own coin leaves a median discount of 4.9 percent against Bitcoin. The range runs from โ10.6 to โ1.1 percent, so the effect is small but real.
Split by timing:
| Unlock effect against Bitcoin, median | Value | 95 % range |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days before the unlock | โ4.3 % | โ6.9 โฆ โ1.6 % |
| Unlock day to 30 days after | โ0.7 % | โ2.9 โฆ +2.1 % |
Almost the whole discount falls in the month before the unlock. After it, there is no measurable difference from normal weeks. That makes sense: the date sits in the release schedule months ahead, and anyone who wants to sell or hedge does it before. Keyrock, too, describes prices often weakening 30 days ahead. On unlock day, the discount has already been paid.
Which leaves the question whether large unlocks and team unlocks behave differently.
Larger unlocks cost more, team unlocks do not
Size matters. Unlocks of at least 5 percent of the free supply cost a median 8.5 percent against Bitcoin, smaller ones between 1 and 5 percent cost 3.8 percent.
By recipient, the result is the opposite of what Keyrock writes. Its report says team unlocks trigger "the worst crashes (โ25%)". In this calculation, unlocks to team and investors cost a median 3.9 percent, all others 8.3 percent. Both comparisons are descriptive, not fixed in advance as separate tests. Who receives matters less than how much is released.
16,000 unlocks sound like more evidence than they hold
"Keyrock analysed more than 16,000 unlocks. This is 1,247."
The 16,000 come from Keyrock splitting running release schedules into single events, spread over 40 coins. It measures against Ether, not Bitcoin. The study describes no comparison group without an unlock, and how the 90 percent is calculated is not in the text. Here it is one-off releases of 1 percent or more only, but on 92 coins and each set against the same coin without an unlock.
On one point both calculations agree: the pressure comes before the date. The difference is the comparison. Without a comparison group, the altcoin discount gets booked to the unlock.
Where the calculation reaches its limits
An unlock is not a sale. DefiLlama documents release schedules, not what actually reaches exchanges afterwards. Postponed dates are missing from the schedules.
Only coins still trading on Binance today are included. Coins delisted after an unlock are missing. They probably did worse, so the true discount may be larger.
Many coins have unlocks every month, and their windows overlap. The ranges are therefore computed over coins rather than single unlocks. The rules for the evaluation and the verdict were fixed before the first run started.
The more expensive question is not on the calendar
If you want to sell because of an unlock, unlock day is too late. The median discount of a little over 4 percent falls in the month before, and the bigger the release, the bigger the discount.
The bigger number is the other one, though: without any unlock, the same coins lost a median 12.6 percent against Bitcoin in two months, in seven of ten windows. Before you look at the next date, it is worth asking why you hold the altcoin instead of Bitcoin. How many altcoins are beating Bitcoin right now is on the altcoin season dashboard. Whether switching paid off historically is in Altcoin Season in Sight: Is It Time to Switch Out of Bitcoin?.
The next measurement is the flip side of the month before: whether the discount can be traded with a short once fees and funding are added.
FAQ
What is a token unlock? Many projects release part of their coins only over time, for example to the team, investors or grant programmes. An unlock is one such release. Only one-off releases on a fixed day are counted here, not ongoing daily releases, because those have no date.
How was the comparison without an unlock built? For every coin, all days with no unlock of at least 0.5 percent in the 45 days before and after, using the same windows as for the unlock. Per coin, the median of these windows counts. The unlock effect is the difference between the unlock window and that median.
Why against Bitcoin and not in dollars? Because the question is whether you should hold the coin instead of Bitcoin. Measured in dollars, the result would mostly depend on whether the whole market happens to be rising or falling.
Where does the data come from? Release schedules from DefiLlama, retrieved 20 Oct 2026, daily prices from Binance up to 18 Oct 2026. Unlocks from January 2021 to September 2026.
Not investment advice, not a recommendation, not a forecast โ historical patterns are no guarantee.
Study the Past โ Improve your Future ๐ฅ