Arena Blog

A grid bot had the flatter drawdown in 138 of 138 windows since 2017, ranges set in advance. Not because it trades well: because it never invests more than half the money. What that protection costs in rally windows, and what a hindsight range was worth.

Four findings you can trade on — win rates, timeframes, regime filters, costs — and four questions that expose any performance claim. From 100,000 systematic backtests.

The CFA franc's end was announced in 2019. The rate has not moved since — and the binding part was never the part that was announced. What a currency peg costs, who sets the price of money for fourteen countries, and what it is costing Senegal and Central Africa right now.

A market fable in two acts — and what it is meant to teach.

Rising Bitcoin while long-term holders sit still counts as deeply bullish on-chain. We replicated the pattern — and asked the one question missing: compared to what?

Everyone says index money buys your stock forever. At the one moment that buying is visible, the price no longer moves. We then tested both directions on Bitcoin ETF flows — and only the backward one survived.

Screeners label altcoins "uptrending vs BTC" and stop there. We measured what followed the label across 370 pairs and 458,000 days — and what followed any day.

Bitcoin realized price is read as the market's average cost basis. Since ETFs and custodians hold large balances, it measures only part of it. What still holds, and what does not.

Trump announced tariffs, $19 billion was force-sold — and three days later the market looked normal again. Sorting the occasion from the cause.

Agent payments are standardised: authorisation, identity, mandate, settlement. Whether the work was any good, nobody checks. Why that is a boundary and not a gap.

When is a backtest result a false positive? Four of our own studies failed — against four rules we locked before looking. What each one caught.

The 2/28 mortgage worked because the collateral appreciated. A GPU cannot do that. What the 2006 comparison holds up to once you put the numbers side by side.