Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

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★ FeaturedTools

We Just Shipped an API That Charges $0.01 Per Call — In USDC, On-Chain, No Account

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Phase 4 is live: the same Bitcoin cycle data, on-chain indicators, and aggregated strategy insights now reachable through three channels — REST, MCP, and x402 pay-per-call in USDC on Base. No account required for the third. An AI agent gets HTTP 402, signs a USDC authorization, retries, and has the data three seconds later. What's actually live, why we built it this way, and the Coinbase detour that cost us a day.

x402MCPREST-API+7
May 23, 20261 min
★ FeaturedTools

We're Opening Our API: REST + MCP + (soon) x402

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

For 18 months we've been quietly building Backtesting Arena — a platform where 500+ users have run 10,000+ backtests across Bitcoin, stocks, ETFs, commodities, and forex. Daily cycle scores, on-chain indicators, sentiment dashboards, strategy insights. All powered by the same data layer that's been running on a private quasi-API.

APIMCPX402+1
May 21, 20261 min
★ FeaturedMarket Structure

AI Agents and Crypto Payments: Where This Is Really Heading

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

This is the crypto-rail deep-dive companion to our earlier piece [AI and the Future of Payment Systems](https://tradingstrategies.work/blog/ai-future-of-payment-systems-2026), which covered the broader fintech picture including Visa Intelligent Commerce and Mastercard Agent Pay. Here we zoom in on what's happening on the crypto layer specifically.

AI-AgentsCryptoPayment-Systems+3
May 15, 20261 min
Strategy

Why the same strategy crushes crypto and bombs the S&P 500

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

We ran the same RSI/SMA crossover across the top 50 coins and the top 50 US stocks — identical rules, identical window. On crypto it beats the buy-and-hold benchmark 80 % of the time; on stocks, 4 %. Why a trend-following strategy works in one market and bleeds in the other.

trend-followingmean-reversionstocks+5
Jun 19, 20261 min
Market Structure

The Gap-Fill Myth: Do Price Gaps Really Fill — and the End of the CME Gap

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

"Price gaps always fill" is a myth. What the evidence actually shows — for stock gaps, and for the CME gap, which became history in May 2026.

gap-fillcme-gapbitcoin+3
Jun 19, 20261 min
Market Analysis

STRC & MSTR Explained: Mechanics, Myths, Risks and Opportunities

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

STRC is below par and the debate is loud. We separate mechanics from myth: how STRC and MSTR work, the misconceptions circulating, and where the risk and the opportunity sit.

strcmstrstrategy+3
Jun 19, 20261 min
Market Structure

The Yen Carry Trade, Explained: How It Moves Stocks and Crypto

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The yen carry trade is the hidden fuel of global markets. With real numbers: how it works, why it blew up in 2024, and what it means for stocks and Bitcoin today.

yen-carry-tradebojbitcoin+3
Jun 18, 20261 min
Strategy

Does Dual Momentum Really Beat Buy & Hold? We Backtested It.

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Dual Momentum supposedly beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown. Our GTAA-5 backtest (2007–2026) says otherwise: not on return — but clearly on drawdown.

dual-momentumgtaabacktest+4
Jun 16, 20261 min
Strategy

The 200-Day Line: Beats Buy & Hold on Crypto, Sleep-Well on Index ETFs

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The 200-day line is the most-cited trend filter in markets: invested above it, out below it. We tested it as a standalone strategy across 110 assets. The result is not one-size-fits-all — on crypto it beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown AND Sharpe; on index ETFs it gives up almost no return while nearly halving the drawdown; on single stocks it works poorly. An honest map of where regime timing pays and where it doesn't.

200 day moving averagefabertrend following+8
Jun 16, 20261 min
Strategy

From Elliott Wave to an Actual Trade Plan: A Tool That Makes Your Count Falsifiable

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Elliott Wave is subjective in real time. This tool doesn't count waves — it makes your count falsifiable: dip, target, invalidation set upfront, sized to risk.

elliott-wavefibonaccitrade-plan+3
Jun 16, 20261 min
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