Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
1–12 of 183 posts · page 1 of 16
The Strategy Library: Not a Leaderboard, a Toolbox
25+ strategies, and the honest question is never "which is best?" It's: which fits what, and when? Four truths that run through the whole library — timeframe decides, "beats B&H" often means losing less, win rate isn't profit, and fit beats breadth.
Backtesting Arena Is Now a Claude Connector
Backtesting Arena can now be connected to claude.ai with a single click — 65 tools for Bitcoin cycle, on-chain data, macro regime and validated backtests. Instead of generic web-search answers, Claude pulls real, DSR-corrected and point-in-time data. Plus a new interactive tool: the Dip Decision calculator.
We Just Shipped an API That Charges $0.01 Per Call — In USDC, On-Chain, No Account
Phase 4 is live: the same Bitcoin cycle data, on-chain indicators, and aggregated strategy insights now reachable through three channels — REST, MCP, and x402 pay-per-call in USDC on Base. No account required for the third. An AI agent gets HTTP 402, signs a USDC authorization, retries, and has the data three seconds later. What's actually live, why we built it this way, and the Coinbase detour that cost us a day.
Half of all Tether dollars sit on Tron. They are there to be sent, not invested.
Tron carries more USDT than Ethereum, yet holds six cents of DeFi per stablecoin dollar. What the chain is, who uses it and why, and what its growth has done for the TRX token, with monthly returns since 2018.
No blockchain is fast, secure and checkable by anyone at once. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana each pay somewhere else.
Why doesn't Bitcoin just get faster? Because speed costs something else. The blockchain trilemma, the ways around it, and the one number to watch for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.
Pi Cycle called four Bitcoin tops. The all-time high wasn't one of them.
"3 for 3" sounds like a perfect Bitcoin indicator until you ask: three out of how many? Pi Cycle, where the count is known, hit four tops and stayed silent at four others, the highest among them.
In crypto, a strategy's first job is the exit. 200,000 backtests show why.
Across 405 crypto pairs, buy and hold loses money on 83 % of them. What 197,435 backtests say about what a strategy does first, what decides whether it earns, and why the bar for any altcoin is Bitcoin.
Stocks in Wartime: Why the Recovery Statistics Only Contain the Winners
"Stocks have recovered from every war" is true — for one country. After the April 1940 high the Dow needed four years and nine months to get back to even, in 1914 the exchange was closed for four and a half months, and St Petersburg, Vienna, Tokyo and Shanghai are missing from the statistics because their exchanges ceased to exist. Across 39 markets, a diversified investor is down in real terms after 30 years in 12 % of cases.
Sell Before the Midterm Year? In Midterm Years the Stock Market Performs Worse Than Usual — but Rarely in the Autumn.
Across 18 midterm years since 1954 the S&P fell 17.7 percent from its high on average — but only 5 of them had a 19-percent drop inside the second half. What the number measures, how much of it reaches Bitcoin (through the S&P, not through yields), and why Bitcoin's own midterm-year bears come from the halving.
What Is Metcalfe's Law — and Does It Hold for Bitcoin?
A network's value grows with the square of its participants — says Metcalfe's Law. Where it came from, where it was ever measured, why it describes 15 years of Bitcoin well, and why the "seven-year low in active addresses" headline still counts no users.
Five Questions for Any Trading Algorithm — Even the Good Providers Leave Out the Drawdown
The most detailed factsheet among three providers checked lists hit rate, best trade and worst trade — but not how far the portfolio fell or for how long. Five questions that make a return readable.
MiCA Regulates the Platform, Not You — What That Means for Your Exchange, DeFi and Your Wallet
Since 1 July 2026 every crypto platform serving the EU needs a licence. For you as a user that means no ban, but this: without a licence you lose protections — segregated assets, liability, a complaints route. Which platforms are in the register, what happens to DeFi, USDT and your own wallet, and how to check a venue.
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