Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

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1–12 of 165 posts · page 1 of 14

★ FeaturedStrategy

The Strategy Library: Not a Leaderboard, a Toolbox

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

25+ strategies, and the honest question is never "which is best?" It's: which fits what, and when? Four truths that run through the whole library — timeframe decides, "beats B&H" often means losing less, win rate isn't profit, and fit beats breadth.

StrategienTrend FollowingMomentum+2
Jul 8, 20261 min
★ FeaturedTools

Backtesting Arena Is Now a Claude Connector

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Backtesting Arena can now be connected to claude.ai with a single click — 65 tools for Bitcoin cycle, on-chain data, macro regime and validated backtests. Instead of generic web-search answers, Claude pulls real, DSR-corrected and point-in-time data. Plus a new interactive tool: the Dip Decision calculator.

ClaudeMCPConnector+5
Jul 5, 20261 min
★ FeaturedTools

We Just Shipped an API That Charges $0.01 Per Call — In USDC, On-Chain, No Account

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Phase 4 is live: the same Bitcoin cycle data, on-chain indicators, and aggregated strategy insights now reachable through three channels — REST, MCP, and x402 pay-per-call in USDC on Base. No account required for the third. An AI agent gets HTTP 402, signs a USDC authorization, retries, and has the data three seconds later. What's actually live, why we built it this way, and the Coinbase detour that cost us a day.

x402MCPREST-API+7
May 23, 20261 min
Backtesting

Coin Days Destroyed as a Bitcoin Signal: The Pattern Is Real. The Edge Is Not.

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Rising Bitcoin while long-term holders sit still counts as deeply bullish on-chain. We replicated the pattern — and asked the one question missing: compared to what?

bitcoinon-chaincoin-days-destroyed+3
Sep 3, 20261 min
Market Analysis

The Index Inclusion Effect Has Vanished. In Bitcoin ETFs, Flows Follow Price, Not the Other Way Round.

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Everyone says index money buys your stock forever. At the one moment that buying is visible, the price no longer moves. We then tested both directions on Bitcoin ETF flows — and only the backward one survived.

etfbitcoinpassive-investing+3
Sep 3, 20261 min
Backtesting

The Median Altcoin Loses to Bitcoin in 3 of 4 Quarters. "Uptrending" Makes It Worse.

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Screeners label altcoins "uptrending vs BTC" and stop there. We measured what followed the label across 370 pairs and 458,000 days — and what followed any day.

altcoinsbitcoinbase-rate+3
Sep 1, 20261 min
realized-price

Bitcoin Realized Price: How ETF Shares Freeze the On-Chain Cost Basis

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Bitcoin realized price is read as the market's average cost basis. Since ETFs and custodians hold large balances, it measures only part of it. What still holds, and what does not.

realized-priceon-chainetf+1
Aug 31, 20261 min
Market Structure

Did the October 10 Crash Push Bitcoin Into the Bear Market?

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Trump announced tariffs, $19 billion was force-sold — and three days later the market looked normal again. Sorting the occasion from the cause.

bitcoinliquidationleverage+3
Aug 18, 20261 min
Tools

Agent Payments: Why No Standard Checks Whether the Work Was Any Good

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Agent payments are standardised: authorisation, identity, mandate, settlement. Whether the work was any good, nobody checks. Why that is a boundary and not a gap.

ai-agentsagentic-paymentsx402+2
Aug 15, 20261 min
Backtesting

When a Backtest Result Is Just Noise: Four of Our Own Studies That Failed

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

When is a backtest result a false positive? Four of our own studies failed — against four rules we locked before looking. What each one caught.

backtestingmethodikplacebo-test+4
Aug 12, 20261 min
Market Structure

Subprime 2006 and the AI Buildout: Which Parallels Survive the Numbers

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The 2/28 mortgage worked because the collateral appreciated. A GPU cannot do that. What the 2006 comparison holds up to once you put the numbers side by side.

macrocreditai-capex+2
Aug 10, 20261 min
Market Analysis

Asset Price Inflation — The Question Is Right, the Chart Is Not

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

If money grows faster than output, where does it go if not into consumption? The question has a good answer. It just isn't the one in the chart everybody posts.

vermoegenspreisinflationgeldmengemakro+3
Aug 9, 20261 min
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