Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

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★ FeaturedTools

We Just Shipped an API That Charges $0.01 Per Call — In USDC, On-Chain, No Account

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Phase 4 is live: the same Bitcoin cycle data, on-chain indicators, and aggregated strategy insights now reachable through three channels — REST, MCP, and x402 pay-per-call in USDC on Base. No account required for the third. An AI agent gets HTTP 402, signs a USDC authorization, retries, and has the data three seconds later. What's actually live, why we built it this way, and the Coinbase detour that cost us a day.

x402MCPREST-API+7
May 23, 20261 min
★ FeaturedTools

We're Opening Our API: REST + MCP + (soon) x402

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

For 18 months we've been quietly building Backtesting Arena — a platform where 500+ users have run 10,000+ backtests across Bitcoin, stocks, ETFs, commodities, and forex. Daily cycle scores, on-chain indicators, sentiment dashboards, strategy insights. All powered by the same data layer that's been running on a private quasi-API.

APIMCPX402+1
May 21, 20261 min
★ FeaturedMarket Structure

AI Agents and Crypto Payments: Where This Is Really Heading

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

This is the crypto-rail deep-dive companion to our earlier piece [AI and the Future of Payment Systems](https://tradingstrategies.work/blog/ai-future-of-payment-systems-2026), which covered the broader fintech picture including Visa Intelligent Commerce and Mastercard Agent Pay. Here we zoom in on what's happening on the crypto layer specifically.

AI-AgentsCryptoPayment-Systems+3
May 15, 20261 min
Strategy

New strategy: Take-Profit / Re-Entry — lock in gains, buy the dip

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

The Take-Profit / Re-Entry strategy combines two simple rules: sell when your target gain is reached, re-enter when price drops enough from the post-sell high. No indicator noise — just price and two parameters.

StrategieCryptoBacktesting+2
Jun 10, 20261 min
Tools

You're Building with AI Coding Agents. Your Codebase Is Drifting. Here's Why — and the Fix.

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

We wrote 500 lines of rules. Claude read them — and still wrote text-[13px] instead of text-xs. The mistake wasn't Claude. The mistake was confusing documentation with enforcement.

EngineeringClaude CodeAI+2
Jun 10, 20261 min
Tools

Grid trading bots, honestly evaluated — what "consistent profits" leaves out

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Grid bots are marketed as "low-risk" and, with AI, as a source of "consistent profits." We checked the claims against the mechanics: a grid earns on sideways oscillation, not trends — and "always trading" means trend-chasing. A fair breakdown, plus how to actually evaluate a grid bot.

BacktestingCryptoGrid Trading+3
Jun 8, 20261 min
Strategy

Funding Rates as a BTC Signal: We Tested It. It Doesn't Work The Way You Would Think

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

High funding rates signal overheated longs — a warning. Negative funding means shorts capitulating — a buy signal. The logic seems solid. We tested it across 6.7 years of BTC data. The results were the opposite of what we expected.

strategy-researchbitcoinfunding-rates+1
Jun 7, 20261 min
Strategy

Bollinger Bands Squeeze is live — when the bands get tight

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A new strategy is live: John Bollinger's classic volatility-cycle play. Wait for the bands to squeeze tight, then ride the long breakout above the upper band. Default 20/2.0/0.1. Pro+.

BacktestingCryptoBollinger Bands+3
Jun 6, 20261 min
Backtesting

Look-Ahead-Bias — The Most Common Mistake in Self-Built Backtests, and Why 200% Returns Usually Lie

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Most traders writing their own backtests accidentally look into the future. The result: spectacular backtests, collapsing live performance. A look at the subtlest methodology mistake in systematic trading — from the common `shift(-N)` to the innocuous `.mean()` aggregation without rolling window — and why we manually check every Backtesting Arena strategy for bias before release.

Look-Ahead-BiasBacktestingMethodik+5
Jun 4, 20261 min
Market Analysis

AI-Crypto Is Not a Monolith: Four Categories — and the One Test That Separates Substance From Narrative

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

"AI-crypto" trades as one sector but is at least four different things on different layers of the stack: payment rails (Solana, Base, Sui, Tempo), agent frameworks (Virtuals, ElizaOS, Fetch/ASI), decentralized intelligence (Bittensor) and decentralized compute (Render, Akash, io.net). A map of the most relevant projects per category — and one test cutting across all of them to show where real substance sits and where a narrative was simply built around a token: is the token structurally necessary, or just present?

AI-CryptoAI-AgentsDePIN+10
Jun 1, 20261 min
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