
Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
The Strategy Library: Not a Leaderboard, a Toolbox
25+ strategies, and the honest question is never "which is best?" It's: which fits what, and when? Four truths that run through the whole library — timeframe decides, "beats B&H" often means losing less, win rate isn't profit, and fit beats breadth.
Backtesting Arena Is Now a Claude Connector
Backtesting Arena can now be connected to claude.ai with a single click — 65 tools for Bitcoin cycle, on-chain data, macro regime and validated backtests. Instead of generic web-search answers, Claude pulls real, DSR-corrected and point-in-time data. Plus a new interactive tool: the Dip Decision calculator.
We Just Shipped an API That Charges $0.01 Per Call — In USDC, On-Chain, No Account
Phase 4 is live: the same Bitcoin cycle data, on-chain indicators, and aggregated strategy insights now reachable through three channels — REST, MCP, and x402 pay-per-call in USDC on Base. No account required for the third. An AI agent gets HTTP 402, signs a USDC authorization, retries, and has the data three seconds later. What's actually live, why we built it this way, and the Coinbase detour that cost us a day.
The Wyckoff Method Explained — What the Research Says, and the Rules We Lock Before Testing
The Wyckoff schematic is among the best-known models in trading. Under its own name it is barely tested — the mechanism behind it is, and it contradicts the Spring at one decisive point. Here is how it works, why phases cannot be counted, and the exact rules plus control group for our test — published before a single number exists.
Why Honest Backtesting Looks Different
A backtest showing +900% is usually an illusion — built from one lucky entry, too few trades, and the wrong benchmark. Four principles we hold ourselves to: the average of all entries, the 30-trade line, Average Buy & Hold, and out-of-sample testing.
Backtest Tokenized Stocks: How Equities, ETFs and Gold Returned to the Arena
acktest tokenized stocks — without a market-data licence. Why the on-chain price opens the door, and where the limits are.
The Coinbase Premium Index: What It Measures, What It Doesn't, and How to Test It
The Coinbase Premium Index is read as a thermometer for US demand. It measures a price gap, not a flow — and its denominator is not a dollar. What it can carry, where it breaks, what the Korea premium reveals about it, and the six tests a backtest needs.
Twenty One Capital (XXI): The Bitcoin Treasury, the mNAV Problem, and What Comes Next
Twenty One Capital holds 43,514 bitcoin and trades at either a 41% discount or a 26% premium, depending on who is counting. Where the company came from, how its engine works, and why mNAV needs four labels.
The 200-Week Moving Average and Young Coins: Why the Obvious Fix Backfires
Young coins without 200 weeks of history skip the 200-week filter automatically. We tested the obvious fix across 207 coins — it made everything worse.
Bitcoin's Liquidity Fair Value: Why the Model Fails the Test
The Bitcoin liquidity fair value chart shows R²=0.85 — and claims BTC is "348% above fair value". We ran the cointegration test. It fails.
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