Arena Blog

When Bitcoin falls while the spot ETFs report inflows, it looks like support. Across 428 trading days the next day was a coin flip like any other, and within the next 20 days the usual pullback came anyway.

Ripple sells banks software and its own stablecoin. What the XRP Ledger is used for, ten popular claims checked against the data, and why nearly all of XRP's gain since 2018 came in one month.

A network's value grows with the square of its participants — says Metcalfe's Law. Where it came from, where it was ever measured, why it describes 15 years of Bitcoin well, and why the "seven-year low in active addresses" headline still counts no users.

Everyone says index money buys your stock forever. At the one moment that buying is visible, the price no longer moves. We then tested both directions on Bitcoin ETF flows — and only the backward one survived.

Bitcoin realized price is read as the market's average cost basis. Since ETFs and custodians hold large balances, it measures only part of it. What still holds, and what does not.

Trump announced tariffs, $19 billion was force-sold — and three days later the market looked normal again. Sorting the occasion from the cause.

The 200-day line is the most-cited trend filter in markets: invested above it, out below it. We tested it as a standalone strategy across 110 assets. The result is not one-size-fits-all — on crypto it beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown AND Sharpe; on index ETFs it gives up almost no return while nearly halving the drawdown; on single stocks it works poorly. An honest map of where regime timing pays and where it doesn't.

A 2x ETF promises double the index move — but only for a single day. The daily reset creates a decay that quietly grinds it down in choppy markets. How it works, who's on the other side, and why "×2 the index" is the most classic backtest mistake there is.

An ETF trades like a stock but is really a basket. Why does its price stay glued to the basket's value? An invisible arbitrage crew. How ETFs work, who's on the other side when you buy — and which counterparties (swap, securities lending) almost nobody sees.

For the first time since 2012, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high *before* the halving. 2025 didn't look like a post-halving bull market — it looked like a front-run bear market. If everyone knows what's coming, everyone trades it earlier — and the classic October-2026 bottom around $40k might already be history. What this thesis implies for the months ahead.

Long-Term Holders hold 71% of all Bitcoin. ETFs and Treasury Companies buy price-inelastically. What happens when this inelastic demand meets a structurally shrinking float?

Gold has had three great bull waves since 1971. Bitcoin has run through four in just 17 years. The fifth is starting now — and it has no precedent.