Arena Blog

Before 2021, every Bitcoin cycle had one major distribution phase in which long-term holders transferred coins to short-term holders. The current cycle broke that pattern — we've seen three separate distribution waves, each triggered by independent institutional demand shocks (ETF launch, 100k break, summer 2025 rally). An honest engagement with four possible readings, why the old 4-year heuristic is methodologically damaged, and what that means for cycle-based trading strategies.

41 days ago, the first backtest ran in the Arena. Today, we crossed **10,000**. Average pace: **248 backtests per day**, every day. We didn't see this coming — and the numbers say more about you than about us.

Six frontier LLMs got $10,000 each and were told to autonomously trade crypto perps. Four lost more than 60 percent. The two winners were Chinese. What this really tells us isn't "China wins AI." It's: LLMs are language probability models, not market actors. A sober look at the latest empirical evidence that autonomous AI trading doesn't work.

A new strategy for altcoins is live: trade any alt with RSI(14) / SMA(14) computed on BTC/USDT instead of on the alt itself. The idea: BTC is the bellwether — when the macro regime is on, trade alts; when it isn't, get out.

Every few months crypto media announces a Bitcoin Golden Cross. But does the signal actually work? We tested it against historical data — on daily and weekly candles. The answer is more nuanced than the headlines.

Golden Cross, RSI/SMA, and OBV-MACD compared head-to-head on Bitcoin weekly candles. Which strategy wins? The honest answer is surprising — and it says more about the market than about the strategies themselves.

Until now we wrote the strategy reports. From today you choose: strategy, universe, period, interval — we backtest and deliver PDF and Excel by email. From €14.99.

A backtest with 34% CAGR looks impressive. But is the result trustworthy? Four questions decide whether any backtest is worth taking seriously — from total return vs. CAGR to maximum drawdown to trade count.

Elliott Wave promises a map for market movements. In reality, the theory has a problem that blocks any systematic validation. We look at why an EW backtest mechanically fails, what you can test instead, and what that means for traders without a PhD in wave counting.

There's no textbook SaaS pitch behind Backtesting Arena — just the simple question every serious trader asks after enough cycles: which rules would have actually kept me out of the worst losses? An honest origin story.

RSI is the most popular indicator in crypto trading. But does the classic "oversold = buy" logic actually work? We ran the numbers — and the results show: without a trend filter, RSI is a trap. With the right setup, it becomes a real strategy.

A new strategy is live: Supertrend, one of the most popular indicators on TradingView. ATR-based bands that ratchet with the trend — the stop only moves in trend direction, never back. Default 10/3.0 with Wilder smoothing. Pro+.