Arena Blog

Across 18 midterm years since 1954 the S&P fell 17.7 percent from its high on average — but only 5 of them had a 19-percent drop inside the second half. What the number measures, how much of it reaches Bitcoin (through the S&P, not through yields), and why Bitcoin's own midterm-year bears come from the halving.

A network's value grows with the square of its participants — says Metcalfe's Law. Where it came from, where it was ever measured, why it describes 15 years of Bitcoin well, and why the "seven-year low in active addresses" headline still counts no users.

The most detailed factsheet among three providers checked lists hit rate, best trade and worst trade — but not how far the portfolio fell or for how long. Five questions that make a return readable.

TradingView's chart copilot can connect to your own MCP servers. Tested on the Backtesting Arena connector: it answered market questions correctly and invented instructions about its own settings four times. Why that happens, and how to tell which answers to check.

A backtest has more parameters than the strategy description lists. The start day of a 3-day candle grid alone moves annual return by 6.66 points on average. What that means for every interval comparison, and the three questions that make the effect visible.

The Richmond Fed tested 30 years of income data against a strict definition: a K appeared in 2002–06 and 2010–13, not after COVID. Why short stretches still last, and why no average can show one.

Four findings you can trade on — win rates, timeframes, regime filters, costs — and four questions that expose any performance claim. From 100,000 systematic backtests.

When is a backtest result a false positive? Four of our own studies failed — against four rules we locked before looking. What each one caught.

If money grows faster than output, where does it go if not into consumption? The question has a good answer. It just isn't the one in the chart everybody posts.

Berkshire sold two thirds of its Apple stake. The cost is put at 50, 130 and 167 billion — for the same event. The difference lies in two items almost nobody deducts.

Max pain, the yen carry trade, rate cuts, the four-year cycle: seven trading myths, each held against the numbers. The answer is almost never "myth" — usually it is something less comfortable.

The holder count for tokenized equities nearly doubled in thirty days. Value per holder has halved since March. Both are true, and together they say something neither says alone.