Btc Liquidity Fair Value · BTC
As of 1 Jul 2026 · Explainable knowledge object · Not a trading signal
Confidence 88%Liquidity Fair Value →
BTC liquidity fair value (the honest counter-model). Over 170 months against G3 central-bank liquidity (Fed+ECB+BoJ): BTC and liquidity are **not cointegrated** (ADF -1.843, p≈0.999, DW 0.06). The levels R² (0.854) is spurious — returns R² is just 0.0107. Hence NO statistically valid fair value: the naive model implies "+348.1% above fair value", but that number is not interpretable. Descriptive co-trend only. Descriptive, not a trading signal.
Factors
Cointegration→
0.999
weight 50% · contribution +1
Spurious Regression→
0.854
weight 25% · contribution +0.843
Liquidity→
0.0107
weight 25% · contribution +0.0107
Source & reproducibility
- Object: ko:btc_liquidity_fair_value:btc:2026-07-01
- Engine: btc-liquidity-fair-value-engine vgliq_g3_v1
- As of: 1 Jul 2026 · computed 2026-07-19
- Repro hash: sha256:28c18a026196aa17c…
- Inputs: 2 provenance references
This is a descriptive, explainable knowledge object for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Figures describe the past and present; they do not predict the future.
← Bitcoin market stateUpdated 1 Jul 2026