Alt-vs-BTC Base Rate
Probability· DE: Alt-vs-BTC-Basisrate
The empirical forward-return distribution (7/30/90d) of altcoins DENOMINATED IN BITCOIN (ALTUSDT ÷ BTCUSDT), pooled over all Binance USDT pairs, unconditional AND conditional on a trend state. The number a screener label ("uptrending vs BTC") has to beat — measured 2026-09: the label sat BELOW the base rate at every horizon. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Calculation
ratio = close(ALTUSDT)/close(BTCUSDT) daily; forward return H = ratio[t+H]/ratio[t] − 1. Pool over survivors (pairs trading on compute day, ≥300 days). Per state and unconditional: n, n_pairs, median, mean, p25/p75, hit rate; lift = median(state) − median(unconditional). Hardness arms: non-overlapping (every H-th day per pair), per-pair share of positive lifts, time split 2024-01-01. Definition fixed before the first run (trials_n 1, definition_hash in payload). Monthly recompute.
Unit & source
distribution · tradingstrategies.work Alt-vs-BTC base rate (trend-state study, spec-alt-vs-btc-layer-v1 F3) methodology
Related terms
Knowledge objects measuring this
Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.