Return Probability
Probability· DE: Return-Wahrscheinlichkeit
The unconditional base-rate distribution of BTC's forward returns over 30/90/180/365 days across all of the mature-era history — median, mean, quantiles, hit rate, downside and new-ATH probability. Answers 'how does BTC behave on average over horizon H?', independent of today's state. The base rate against which conditional views (historical_analogue) are judged.
Calculation
For each horizon H, over every start day with a full H-day forward window: end_return = price(d+H)/price(d)−1, max_drawdown = min over the window of price_t/price(d)−1, new_ath = window high exceeds the ATH at entry. Aggregated to median/mean/quantiles/hit-rate/avg-drawdown/P(drawdown≤−20%)/P(new ATH). Overlapping windows → n_independent ≈ history_days/H reported alongside n_windows.
Unit & source
distribution · tradingstrategies.work Probability Engine (forward-return base rate) methodology
Related terms
Knowledge objects measuring this
Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.