Positive Return Rate
Probability· DE: Positiv-Return-Rate
The base-rate probability that BTC is up over a horizon — the share of all historical H-day windows that ended positive. Unconditional (distinct from analogue_hit_rate, which is conditioned on the current fingerprint).
Calculation
count(windows with end_return > 0) / count(windows) × 100 per horizon.
Unit & source
pct · tradingstrategies.work Probability Engine (forward-return base rate) methodology
Related terms
Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.