Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
61–64 of 64 posts · page 6 of 6
x402 Is Six Orders of Magnitude Smaller Than Tron-USDT. What Does That Actually Mean?
x402 moves $28,000 in daily volume. Tron-USDT moves $20-30B. Difference: six orders of magnitude. Yet both get sold as "the future of stablecoin settlement." A sober reframing of why x402 is infrastructure-building and option value, while Tron-USDT is the shadow-dollar standard of the Global South — and why both are real without being the same market.
Why LLMs Can't Trade — What $60,000 in Losses at an AI Trading Arena Tell Us About Autonomous AI Trading
Six frontier LLMs got $10,000 each and were told to autonomously trade crypto perps. Four lost more than 60 percent. The two winners were Chinese. What this really tells us isn't "China wins AI." It's: LLMs are language probability models, not market actors. A sober look at the latest empirical evidence that autonomous AI trading doesn't work.
What Makes a Backtest Result Trustworthy? Four Questions to Ask
A backtest with 34% CAGR looks impressive. But is the result trustworthy? Four questions decide whether any backtest is worth taking seriously — from total return vs. CAGR to maximum drawdown to trade count.
Can You Backtest Elliott Wave — and What the Answer Tells You About the Theory
Elliott Wave promises a map for market movements. In reality, the theory has a problem that blocks any systematic validation. We look at why an EW backtest mechanically fails, what you can test instead, and what that means for traders without a PhD in wave counting.
Don't miss new blog posts
One short email per new post — strategies, backtests, market analysis. No spam, unsubscribe with one click anytime.
By subscribing you accept our privacy policy. We use Resend for delivery. Double opt-in confirmation required.