Arena Blog

We ran the same RSI/SMA crossover across the top 50 coins and the top 50 US stocks — identical rules, identical window. On crypto it beats the buy-and-hold benchmark 80 % of the time; on stocks, 4 %. Why a trend-following strategy works in one market and bleeds in the other.

"Price gaps always fill" is a myth. What the evidence actually shows — for stock gaps, and for the CME gap, which became history in May 2026.

STRC is below par and the debate is loud. We separate mechanics from myth: how STRC and MSTR work, the misconceptions circulating, and where the risk and the opportunity sit.

The yen carry trade is the hidden fuel of global markets. With real numbers: how it works, why it blew up in 2024, and what it means for stocks and Bitcoin today.

The Bitcoin four-year cycle isn't in the code — only the halving supply schedule is. What real cycles (pigs, chips, ships) teach us about the difference between a causal cycle and a fitted narrative.

There's a way to draw Bitcoin's price that turns fifteen years of booms, crashes and mania into something almost boring: a nearly straight line.

The most consequential Bitcoin payments story of the past year isn't a price chart. It's a transaction you'll never see.

High funding rates signal overheated longs — a warning. Negative funding means shorts capitulating — a buy signal. The logic seems solid. We tested it across 6.7 years of BTC data. The results were the opposite of what we expected.

CoinMarketCap published its updated *State of the Market* report on Real-World Asset Perpetuals this week. The headline: **$821.8 billion** in cumulative volume across 21 weeks, a weekly run-rate of $46 billion, spread across 17 venues.

For the first time since 2012, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high *before* the halving. 2025 didn't look like a post-halving bull market — it looked like a front-run bear market. If everyone knows what's coming, everyone trades it earlier — and the classic October-2026 bottom around $40k might already be history. What this thesis implies for the months ahead.

A 5-asset what-if simulator: Bitcoin, S&P 500, Ethereum, Gold and Cash. See your mix vs. 100% Bitcoin — with Sharpe, max drawdown and volatility, not just end value.

41 days ago, the first backtest ran in the Arena. Today, we crossed **10,000**. Average pace: **248 backtests per day**, every day. We didn't see this coming — and the numbers say more about you than about us.