Arena Blog

Bitcoin realized price is read as the market's average cost basis. Since ETFs and custodians hold large balances, it measures only part of it. What still holds, and what does not.

Trump announced tariffs, $19 billion was force-sold — and three days later the market looked normal again. Sorting the occasion from the cause.

Max pain, the yen carry trade, rate cuts, the four-year cycle: seven trading myths, each held against the numbers. The answer is almost never "myth" — usually it is something less comfortable.

A leverage backtest rarely shows more return – often less. Why effective exposure = position × leverage decides, and where 5× would have liquidated your strategy in 2018.

Stacking more sats by rotating between altcoins, BTC and stablecoins sounds compelling. We measured it across 45 test cases. The result: less BTC than doing nothing.

The Bitcoin liquidity fair value chart shows R²=0.85 — and claims BTC is "348% above fair value". We ran the cointegration test. It fails.

DCA vs. lump sum for Bitcoin? Across 346 historical entries the lump sum won 60 % of the time — but DCA halved the downside. The distribution instead of an opinion.

Bitcoin has no native yield. Every advertised BTC yield is a sold option, a loan, or a token emission. And with the income ETFs, the window decides whether the answer flatters or destroys.

The copper/gold ratio is sold as a macro and Bitcoin signal. What it actually measures, where it fails, and why a viral "Bitcoin cycle" indicator built on it has look-ahead bias.

Most trading strategies are sold to you as complete solutions. "Run this system, make money." Enter signal. Exit signal. Repeat. Base rate win percentages plastered across the landing page.

"Bitcoin is going productive" — they say. Wrapped BTC brings BTC into DeFi. How big is it really, who dominates, where are the catches? A sober map.

"Bitcoin splits in August because miners disagree." The date is roughly right, the mechanism in that sentence isn't. What BIP-110 actually triggers — and what it doesn't.