Arena Blog

Saylor's "we'll probably sell some bitcoin" wasn't capitulation, it was a bond-investor memo dressed up as an earnings-call aside. But who is the audience actually? An analysis of the STRC holder base surfaces an 80% retail quota that redefines the entire risk profile. On the $100 anchor mechanic, why it isn't a stablecoin peg, three stress scenarios from soft break to bank run, and why Saylor's communication timing is the genuinely sophisticated part of the construction.

A new strategy for altcoins is live: trade any alt with RSI(14) / SMA(14) computed on BTC/USDT instead of on the alt itself. The idea: BTC is the bellwether — when the macro regime is on, trade alts; when it isn't, get out.

A new strategy is live: Supertrend, one of the most popular indicators on TradingView. ATR-based bands that ratchet with the trend — the stop only moves in trend direction, never back. Default 10/3.0 with Wilder smoothing. Pro+.

Heiken-Ashi candles have been a popular noise filter from Japan for decades. Smoothed Heiken Ashi takes it one step further and smooths the OHLC data twice — before and after the HA calculation. Live today as the latest strategy in the Backtesting Arena.

Everyone knows Bollinger Bands. Keltner Channels have been around longer and use ATR instead of standard deviation — which often makes them better suited for trend following. Live today as strategy 10 in the Backtesting Arena.

Grid bots promise profit from sideways markets — but without the right range they fail. We show with two real BTC backtests (2024 and 2025) when grid wins, and when buy-and-hold dominates.

Buy now or wait for the dip? Both camps believe in rising prices — yet pursue opposite strategies. An expected-value calculation reveals which one actually wins, and under which conditions the math flips.

There's a phrase you hear in every Bitcoin bear market: "wait for the forced sellers." Leveraged treasury companies, miners bleeding cash, funds facing redemptions — the theory says a prolonged downturn eventually flushes out the weak hands and marks the bottom.