Arena Blog

The Fed looks trapped: fight inflation with high rates, or refinance the debt cheaply. But it already resolved part of that bind — by decoupling its tools. A methodical read on what this means for Treasuries.

The yen carry trade is the hidden fuel of global markets. With real numbers: how it works, why it blew up in 2024, and what it means for stocks and Bitcoin today.

For the first time since 2012, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high *before* the halving. 2025 didn't look like a post-halving bull market — it looked like a front-run bear market. If everyone knows what's coming, everyone trades it earlier — and the classic October-2026 bottom around $40k might already be history. What this thesis implies for the months ahead.

Payment systems are being fundamentally rebuilt right now. The driver isn't crypto — it's AI. What Visa, Mastercard, AWS, and Citi are pivoting toward simultaneously, and the architecture taking shape for the next decade.

The parallels between today and 1999 are striking — concentration, valuations, the CapEx wave, the circular deals between the big players. But in four places the picture is fundamentally different: profits, how the investments are funded, utilization, and the monetary backdrop. A sober comparison, without falling into either camp.

Gold has had three great bull waves since 1971. Bitcoin has run through four in just 17 years. The fifth is starting now — and it has no precedent.