ETH base rate after a confirmed regime shift (anchor = confirmation day, 90d forward). By target state: accumulation: +4.8% (n=3, anecdote); recovery: +18.12% (n=9, anecdote); expansion: +15.16% (n=11); distribution: -13.92% (n=6, anecdote); overheated: +8.6% (n=5, anecdote). Strongest base "expansion": median +15.16% over 13 transitions (13 distinct months). "After any regime shift" mixes bullish and bearish transitions → not direction-interpretable. Regime transitions are rare → most buckets are statistically thin (honestly flagged as anecdote). Descriptive, not a forecast. Unconditional view: return_probability; state-conditional: market_analogue.