Preregistered Study · maxpain-distance-v1
As of 29 Sept 2026 · Explainable knowledge object · Not a trading signal
Study maxpain-distance-v1 — question: Does the distance between spot and max pain three days before a Deribit BTC expiry relate to the move until settlement — does price get pulled toward max pain, or run away from it? Preregistered 2026-09-29 (commit c34dea2) before the first outcome number. The claim fell (rule: prereg_test). Spearman ρ +0.339, 95 % interval [−0.038; +0.647], permutation p 0.060 on 31 overlap-free cases (α 0.05). Window 2026-05-31 to 2026-09-28. Descriptive record of a test, not a signal.
Factors
Related knowledge
Source & reproducibility
- Object: ko:study:maxpain-distance-v1:2026-09-29
- Engine: study-register-engine v1.1.0
- As of: 29 Sept 2026 · computed 2026-09-29
- Repro hash: sha256:7c7633c4fff7730d6…
- Inputs: 2 provenance references
This is a descriptive, explainable knowledge object for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Figures describe the past and present; they do not predict the future.