Parabolic Base Rate
As of 31 Oct 2026 · Explainable knowledge object · Not a trading signal
Parabolic runs (close ≥ 2× SMA200 and ≥ +50 % in 30d): 560 episodes on 249 Binance USDT pairs across 66 months (graveyard 6.4 %). From the qualifying day, median per exit: ALT/BTC trend flips -13.75 % after 32d · close below SMA50 -17.59 % after 31d · whichever first -14 % after 27d (34.49 % below the high) · fixed 30-day horizon -11.29 %. Against the same rule from every day: -12.66 pp (whichever first), placebo p < 0.001. Only 24–75 windows are calendar-independent. Descriptive, not a signal.
Factors
Source & reproducibility
- Object: ko:parabolic_base_rate:global:2026-10-31
- Engine: parabolic-base-rate-engine v1.0.1
- As of: 31 Oct 2026 · computed 2026-11-02
- Repro hash: sha256:273c7910f8efdd0ac…
- Inputs: 1 provenance references
This is a descriptive, explainable knowledge object for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Figures describe the past and present; they do not predict the future.