Parabolic Base Rate
As of 24 Sept 2026 · Explainable knowledge object · Not a trading signal
Parabolic runs (close ≥ 2× SMA200 and ≥ +50 % in 30d): 535 episodes on 240 Binance USDT pairs across 65 months (graveyard 6.4 %). From the qualifying day, median per exit: ALT/BTC trend flips -13.28 % after 32d · close below SMA50 -16.03 % after 31d · whichever first -13.58 % after 27d (34.49 % below the high) · fixed 30-day horizon -10.49 %. Against the same rule from every day: -12.24 pp (whichever first), placebo p < 0.001. Only 24–74 windows are calendar-independent. Descriptive, not a signal.
Factors
Source & reproducibility
- Object: ko:parabolic_base_rate:global:2026-09-24
- Engine: parabolic-base-rate-engine v1.0.1
- As of: 24 Sept 2026 · computed 2026-09-25
- Repro hash: sha256:1026a960c4589f543…
- Inputs: 1 provenance references
This is a descriptive, explainable knowledge object for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Figures describe the past and present; they do not predict the future.