BTC base rate after a confirmed regime shift (anchor = confirmation day, 90d forward). By target state: accumulation: +60.91% (n=3, anecdote); recovery: +9.43% (n=11); expansion: -5.68% (n=9, anecdote); distribution: +4.32% (n=7, anecdote); overheated: +33.84% (n=4, anecdote). Strongest base "recovery": median +9.43% over 13 transitions (13 distinct months). "After any regime shift" mixes bullish and bearish transitions → not direction-interpretable. Regime transitions are rare → most buckets are statistically thin (honestly flagged as anecdote). Descriptive, not a forecast. Unconditional view: return_probability; state-conditional: market_analogue.