Event Base Rate · LISTING
As of 16 Oct 2026 · Explainable knowledge object · Not a trading signal
Listing base rate (survivorship-biased UPPER BOUND): after a coin's Binance listing, over 90d median -39.12%, 26.33% positive (n=414 listings over 98 months). By regime at listing: accumulation: -27.99% (n=18, below gate); recovery: -41.37% (n=162); expansion: -48.09% (n=103); distribution: -36% (n=79); overheated: -13.71% (n=37, not interpretable). The overheated bucket is NOT interpretable (maximum survivorship exposure, D13). Survivorship-adjusted (×0.39 survival): only 10.27% of ALL listings both survived AND were up after 90d. UPPER BOUND — the ~61% delisted coins are invisible, true returns are worse. Descriptive, not a signal.
Factors
Related knowledge
Source & reproducibility
- Object: ko:event_base_rate:listing:2026-10-16
- Engine: event-base-rate-engine v2.2.1
- As of: 16 Oct 2026 · computed 2026-10-16
- Repro hash: sha256:67f3ca24072a9c0cd…
- Inputs: 1 provenance references
This is a descriptive, explainable knowledge object for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Figures describe the past and present; they do not predict the future.