Event Base Rate · LISTING
As of 1 Sept 2026 · Explainable knowledge object · Not a trading signal
Listing base rate (survivorship-biased UPPER BOUND): after a coin's Binance listing, over 90d median -39.82%, 25.93% positive (n=405 listings over 97 months). By regime at listing: accumulation: -27.99% (n=18, anecdote); recovery: -41.67% (n=158); expansion: -48.14% (n=100); distribution: -36% (n=79); overheated: -15.71% (n=36, not interpretable). The overheated bucket is NOT interpretable (maximum survivorship exposure, D13). Survivorship-adjusted (×0.39 survival): only 10.11% of ALL listings both survived AND were up after 90d. UPPER BOUND — the ~61% delisted coins are invisible, true returns are worse. Descriptive, not a signal.
Factors
Related knowledge
Source & reproducibility
- Object: ko:event_base_rate:listing:2026-09-01
- Engine: event-base-rate-engine v2.1.0
- As of: 1 Sept 2026 · computed 2026-09-01
- Repro hash: sha256:b60b55133255fc7d3…
- Inputs: 1 provenance references
This is a descriptive, explainable knowledge object for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Figures describe the past and present; they do not predict the future.