Listing base rate (survivorship-biased UPPER BOUND): after a coin's Binance listing, over 90d median -38.64%, 26.41% positive (n=409 listings over 97 months). By regime at listing: accumulation: -27.99% (n=18, anecdote); recovery: -38.18% (n=158); expansion: -49.33% (n=100); distribution: -36% (n=81); overheated: -13.71% (n=37, not interpretable). The overheated bucket is NOT interpretable (maximum survivorship exposure, D13). Survivorship-adjusted (×0.39 survival): only 10.3% of ALL listings both survived AND were up after 90d. UPPER BOUND — the ~61% delisted coins are invisible, true returns are worse. Descriptive, not a signal.