Liquidity Fair Value
Valuation· DE: Liquiditäts-Fair-Value
A model that regresses log(BTC) on log(global liquidity) to imply a 'fair value' and a deviation. We publish the HONEST version: the fair value is only interpretable if BTC and liquidity are cointegrated. Empirically (2010–2026, G3 central-bank liquidity) they are NOT — so no valid fair value exists, only a descriptive co-trend.
Calculation
log(BTC) = α + β·log(liquidity), walk-forward (expanding, 24m warmup). Fair value = exp(α_t + β_t·log(liq_t)). Deviation = BTC/FV − 1. Validity gate: Engle-Granger cointegration (ADF on OLS residuals) must reject the unit root; otherwise the deviation is not interpretable.
Unit & source
usd · tradingstrategies.work BTC-Liquidity-Fair-Value methodology
Related terms
Knowledge objects measuring this
Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.